数字技术对降碳减污协同增效的门槛效应

Threshold effect of digital technology on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction

【目的】“双碳”战略与数字经济的历史交汇期,依托数字化力量推动环境治理成为重要的研究焦点,探讨数字技术对降碳减污协同增效的影响及其机制意义凸显。【方法】本文基于2011—2020年中国省级面板数据,运用基准回归模型探讨数字技术对降碳减污协同增效的直接影响,并通过构建门槛回归模型分别探究了以产业结构升级、能源利用效率、生产工艺创新、环境规制为约束变量,全国以及东部、中部、西部3个地区的数字技术对降碳减污协同增效的非线性效应。【结果】①在全国以及东部、中部、西部3个地区,数字技术对降碳减污协同增效存在正向的直接影响,且呈现出“中部>西部>东部”的分布特点。②数字技术在全国层面对降碳减污协同增效存在显著的门槛效应。产业结构升级高于门槛值、能源利用效率高于第二门槛值、生产工艺创新在第一门槛值和第二门槛值之间、环境规制高于门槛值时,数字技术的推动作用更强。③对东部、中部、西部地区分别进行门槛效应检验,3个地区均呈现出显著的非线性效应。其中,除了在西部地区环境规制高于门槛值时,数字技术对降碳减污协同增效表现为负向的非线性影响;各门槛变量高于门槛值时,数字技术对降碳减污协同增效的积极作用均更强。【结论】数字技术有利于推动降碳减污协同增效,助力中国推进生态文明建设。因此,各地区应将全过程治理纳入降碳减污协同增效工作中,制定差异化政策,形成“数字+绿色”发展合力。

[Objective]During the concurrent development of the“dual carbon”goals and the digital economy,relying on digital power to promote environmental governance has become an important research focus.Exploring the impact of digital technology on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction and its mechanism have great significance.[Methods]Based on provincial-level panel data from 2011 to 2020 in China,this article uses benchmark regression models to explore the direct impact of digital technology on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction.By constructing threshold regression models,the nonlinear effects of digital technology on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction across the country,as well as in the eastern,central,and western regions,with industrial structure upgrading,energy utilization efficiency,production process innovation,and environmental regulation as constraint variables,were explored.[Results](1)In the whole country,as well as in the eastern,central,and western regions,digital technology has a positive direct impact on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction,and shows a distribution characteristic of“central>western>eastern”.(2)Digital technology has a significant threshold effect on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction at the national level.When the industrial structure upgrading is above the threshold,energy utilization efficiency is above the second threshold,production process innovation is between the first and second threshold,and environmental regulation is above the threshold,the driving effect of digital technology is stronger.(3)The threshold effect tests were conducted on the eastern,central,and western regions,and all three regions showed significant nonlinear effects.Among them,except for when the environmental regulation in the western region exceed the threshold,digital technology has a negative nonlinear impact on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction;When the threshold variables are higher than the threshold,digital technology has a stronger positive effect on the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction.[Conclusion]Digital technology is conducive to promoting the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction and assisting China in promoting ecological civilization construction.Therefore,all regions should incorporate the whole-process governance into the collaborative work of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,and efficiency enhancement,formulate differentiated policies,and form a joint force of“digital+green”development.