基于组合赋权-集对分析法的城市人员密集场所风险评价

Risk Assessment of Urban Crowded Places Based on CombinationWeighting-set Pair Analysis

为科学评估城市人员密集场所风险,提高城市人员密集场所安全性,运用扎根理论方法对25起典型城市人员密集场所事故案例进行3级编码,提取出16个风险因素,建立了城市人员密集场所风险评价指标体系;然后运用序关系法(order relation,G1)和熵权法(entropy weight,EW)提出了基于主客距离的组合赋权方法确定各指标的组合权重,运用集对分析法(set pair analysis,SPA)评价和预测城市人员密集场所的风险水平,构建了基于组合赋权-集对分析法的城市人员密集场所风险评价方法;最后,以城市旅游景区为例,评价景区的风险状况和发展态势。结果表明:该评价方法可以减少主观随机性,消除单一的客观误差,弥补了两者之间的信息误差,具有较强的操作性和实用性,为城市人员密集区域安全风险有效预警及管控提供有力的参考依据。

In order to scientifically evaluate the risk of crowded places in cities and improve the safety of crowded places in cities,25 typical accidents in crowded places in cities were coded by using grounded theory,16 risk factors were extracted,and the risk evaluation index system of crowded places in cities was established.Then,using the order relation method(G1)and entropy weight method(EW),a combination weighting method based on the distance between subject and object was put forward to determine the combination weight of each index,and the set pair analysis method(SPA)was used to evaluate and predict the risk level of urban crowded places,and the risk evaluation method of urban crowded places based on combination weighting-SPA was constructed.Finally,taking urban tourist attractions as an example,the risk situation and development trend of the scenic spots were evaluated.The results show that the evaluation method can reduce subjective randomness,eliminate a single objective error,make up for the information error between them,and has strong operability and practicability,which provides a powerful reference for effective early warning and control of security risks in crowded places.