突发公共危机事件下乡村旅游者重游意愿的复杂性研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析方法

A Complex Study on the Willingness of Rural Tourists to Revisit under the Influence of Epidemic:A Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

乡村旅游者重游率是农村产业兴旺及农户持续减贫的有效观测维度。已有重游意愿影响因素的相关研究普遍采用线性的定量方法,缺乏对其复杂性进行深入探讨,并且在突发公共危机事件影响下,产生了新的重游意愿影响因素。文章基于复杂性理论,采用模糊集定性比较分析方法,在重游意愿已有影响因素的基础上,纳入旅游健康风险变量,构建了乡村旅游者高重游意愿的复杂因果模型。文章选取宜宾市筠连县春风村重游者进行了实证研究,获得13种能提高重游意愿的复杂组合路径,证实乡村旅游者高重游意愿组态条件具有复杂性,旅游健康风险变量在不同的组态中可能以高风险、低风险或不出现的形式呈现,且没有任何单一要素能导致乡村旅游者高重游意愿,两种及以上的组合方式能实现高重游意愿。

The revisiting rate of rural tourists is an effective observation dimension for the prosperity of rural industries and the sustainable poverty reduction of farmers.The existing studies on the influence of willingness to revisit generally use linear quantitative methods which lacks in-depth discussions on its complexity.Influenced by COVID-19,the influencing factors of willingness to revisit have generated new variables.Based on the complexity theory,this paper adopted the qualitative comparative analysis method of fuzzy sets and incorporated tourism health risk variables into the existing influencing factors of the willingness to revisit to build a complex causal model of the high willingness of rural tourists.It selected the repeat visiters in Chunfeng Village,Junlian County,Yibin City for an empirical research,obtained 13 kinds of complex combination paths that can promote high revisit willingness which confirmed the complexity of the configuration conditions of tourists’high revisiting willingness;and that tourism health risk variables may be presented in the form of high risk,low risk or no occurrence in different configurations,and that no single factor can lead to high repeat intention but combinations two or more variables can achieve high repeat intention.