宁夏工业碳排放脱钩影响因素分析及减排对策研究

Factors Influencing Decoupling of Industrial Carbon Emissions and Countermeasures to Reduce Emissions in Ningxia

基于2005—2019年宁夏工业主要能源消费数据,通过IPCC提出的碳排放核算方法、Tapio脱钩分析方法及LMDI模型对宁夏工业碳排放的时空演变特征、与经济发展脱钩及影响因素进行分析.结果表明,宁夏工业碳排放总量前期快速增长,后期增长减缓,由2.09×10^(7)t增长至8.10×10^(7)t,年均增长率为10.17%;碳排放强度呈下降趋势,由3.11 t/万元降低至1.64 t/万元,年均下降4.46%.宁夏工业碳排放脱钩状态较差,测算区间内仅6 a呈现弱脱钩状态.能源结构对宁夏工业碳排放脱钩起抑制因素,平均脱钩弹性系数为3.346;能源强度对碳排放脱钩起驱动作用,平均脱钩弹性系数为-0.279;经济水平对工业碳排放脱钩起次要抑制作用,平均脱钩弹性系数为0.713;人口规模对工业碳排放脱钩有较小的抑制作用.建议宁夏积极调整能源结构,提高能源的使用效率,提高风能、光能、核能等清洁能源的使用比例,加强地区间的合作交流,实现地区间的协同发展.

Based on the industrial major energy consumption data of Ningxia from 2005 to 2019,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of industrial carbon emissions,and the decoupling of economic development and its influencing factors in Ningxia were analyzed by comprehensively using IPCC carbon emission accounting method,Tapio decoupling analysis method and LMDI model.The results show that the total industrial carbon emissions in Ningxia grew rapidly in the early stage and slowed down in the later stage,from 2.09×10^(7)t to 8.1×10^(7)t,with an average annual growth rate of 10.17%;the carbon emission intensity showed a decreasing trend,from 3.11 t/10000 yuan to 1.64 t/10000 yuan,with an average annual decrease of 4.46%.The decoupling status of industrial carbon emissions in Ningxia is poor,with only 6 of the observed years in weak decoupling status.It showed strong negative decoupling of industrial carbon emissions in 2019,and the growth rate of carbon emissions is positive while the growth rate of industrial GDP is negative.The energy structure is the inhibiting factor for the decoupling of industrial carbon emissions in Ningxia,with an average decoupling elasticity coefficient of 3.346;the energy intensity is the driving factor for the decoupling of carbon emissions,with an average decoupling elasticity coefficient of-0.279;the economic level is the secondary inhibiting factor for the decoupling of industrial carbon emissions,with an average decoupling elasticity coefficient of 0.713;and the population size has a small inhibiting effect on the decoupling of industrial carbon emissions.It is suggested that Ningxia should actively adjust the energy structure,improve the efficiency of energy use,increase the proportion of clean energy such as wind,light and nuclear,and strengthen the cooperation and exchange between regions to achieve synergistic development.