1640—1949年影响江浙沪地区超强台风序列的重建

Reconstruction of Super Typhoons Affecting Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Area from 1640-1949

超强台风是影响我国沿海地区最严重的自然灾害之一。依托现代台风研究成果,利用地方志、档案、报刊等资料,归纳风力程度、人口死亡、房屋损坏、农作物损失、官民赈济以及影响范围6个指标,建立历史时期超强台风的识别方法,重建1640—1949年影响我国江浙沪地区的超强台风序列,并以1950—2019年的现代超强台风序列为参照进行统计检验,结果表明此方法能较好识别历史时期的超强台风事件。重建序列显示平均每10年发生2—3次超强台风,且存在明显波动,波动趋势与一般台风有所不同。

Super typhoons are one of the most severe natural disasters affecting China s coastal areas.Relying on modern research results of typhoons,this paper uses historical local gazettes,archives,newspapers and other materials to deduct six indicators,including the wind scales,death toll,house damage,crop loss,official and public relief policy,and typhoon impact range,to develop a method for identifying super typhoons in the historical period.It is applied to reconstructing the super typhoon affecting Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area from 16401949,and the results are in turn statistically tested against the records of super typhoons from 19502019.This study shows that this method is robust in identifying the super typhoon events in the historical period.The reconstructed sequence shows that an average of 2.3 super typhoons occurs every 10 years,and there are obvious fluctuations in its frequency,which are different from that of general typhoons.