农户经营规模与土地生产率关系的再探究——来自第三次全国农业普查规模农户的证据

Revisiting the Relationship between Farm Size and Land Productivity:Evidence from Large-scale Farms in the Third National Agricultural Census

本文采用含有大小农户的第三次全国农业普查规模农户数据,探究了农户经营规模与土地生产率的关系,讨论了技术采用和要素选择对农户规模—生产率关系变化的影响。回归结果显示,水稻单产与播种面积呈差异幅度较小的显著反向关系,小麦和玉米单产与播种面积呈拐点分别为10亩和15亩的显著倒U型关系;50亩以内的农户生产率整体上稍高于50亩以上的农户生产率。研究发现,农户随着土地经营规模的扩大而相应采取了机械替代人力的技术选择,虽然未强化小麦的倒U型关系,但明显强化了玉米的倒U型关系、减弱了水稻的反向关系。中国农户的规模—生产率关系已经走向或正在走向倒U型关系,过大或过小的土地经营规模都不利于生产率的提升。可以预见,随着中国社会经济的进一步发展,水稻单产与播种面积关系将会呈现为倒U型关系,小麦和玉米单产与播种面积关系将会表现为拐点进一步前移的倒U型关系。农业适度规模经营战略,既符合中国人多地少的基本国情,也有助于国家粮食安全的保障和农业的可持续发展。

This study utilizes data from China's third agricultural census,encompassing both small and large-scale farms,to investigate the relationship between farm size and land productivity,and to discuss the influence of technology adoption and input choice on changes in the farm size-productivity relationship.Regression results indicate that while rice yield demonstrates a significantly inverse relationship with cropped area,the differences in magnitude are relatively small.In contrast,wheat and maize yields exhibit significant inverted U-shaped relationships with inflection points at 10 mu and 15 mu,respectively.Generally,farms within 50 mu tend to have slightly higher productivity than those above 50 mu.Moreover,our findings reveal that as farm scales expand,farmers have adopted technology to replace labor with machinery.Although this strategy has strengthened the inverted U-shaped relationship for maize and weakened the inverse relationship for rice,it has not affected the inverted U-shaped relationship for wheat.The farm size-productivity relationship in China is thus shifting towards an inverted U-shaped pattern,suggesting that excessively large or small operational scales are not conducive to enhancing productivity.With further development of China's social economy,it is anticipated that the relationship between yield and cropped area will demonstrate an inverted Ushaped pattern for rice,while for wheat and maize,it will manifest an inverted U-shaped pattern with inflection points shifting further forward.The strategy promoting a moderate operational scale in agricultural production not only aligns with China's fundamental national conditions of a large population with limited land resources,but also significantly contributes to national food security and the sustainable development of agriculture.