考虑策略型消费者的期权组合订购与预售联合决策研究

Joint Strategy of Option Order and Deposit Inflation Pre-sale with Considering Consumers'Risk Aversion

弹性订购和预售联合策略可以降低需求不确定引发的库存积压和产品脱销风险。然而,如何制定预售策略以吸引更多的消费者预购产品,并根据预售情况制定更具弹性的订购策略,是零售商优化运营的重要问题。本文考虑零售商折价和定金膨胀两种预售模式,并考虑风险厌恶的策略型消费者的预购行为,构建消费者估值和效用函数,探讨折价预售的最优预售价和定金膨胀预售下的最优尾款价;研究两种预售模式下零售商批发订购和期权组合订购策略,求解相应的最优总订购量。通过比较和数值计算,分析不同影响因素对订购预售决策选择的影响,得出了不同策略下的临界阈值。研究结果表明:同一预售模式下,零售商选择期权订购均优于批发订购,零售商采取期权组合订购的最优期望利润大于批发订购下的最优期望利润。期权组合订购更具订购弹性;消费者估值、批发价、定金膨胀率影响零售商的预售决策,且消费者风险厌恶程度越高,定金膨胀预售的应用范围越广,零售商选择定金膨胀预售模式越有利。期权组合订购与定金膨胀预售的联合策略可有效降低需求波动带来的零售企业运营风险。

The joint strategy of flexible ordering and pre-sale can reduce the risk of inventory overstock and product out of stock caused by uncertain demand.However,how to formulate pre-sale strategies to attract more consumers to pre order products and formulate more flexible ordering strategies is an important issue for retailers to optimize their operations.Two pre-sale modes are considered,namely,retailer discount and“deposit infla⁃tion”,and the risk aversion of strategic consumers'pre-sale behavior is considered,consumer valuation and util⁃ity function are constructed,and the optimal pre-sale price of discount pre-sale and the optimal final payment price under“deposit inflation”pre-sale are discussed;The wholesale ordering and option combination ordering strategies of retailers under two pre-sale modes are studied,and the corresponding optimal total ordering quantity is obtained.Through comparison and numerical calculation,the influence of different influencing fac⁃tors on the ordering and pre-sale decision choice is analyzed,and the critical threshold under different strategies is obtained.The research shows that under the same pre-sale mode,retailers'option ordering is better than wholesale ordering,and the optimal expected profit of retailers'option combination ordering is greater than that of wholesale ordering.Option portfolio ordering is more flexible;Consumer valuation,wholesale price and deposit inflation rate affect retailers'pre-sale decisions,and the higher the degree of consumer risk aversion,the wider the application scope of“deposit inflation”pre-sale,and the more favorable the retailers choose“deposit inflation”pre-sale mode.The joint strategy of option portfolio ordering and“deposit inflation”pre-sale can effectively reduce the operational risk of retail enterprises caused by demand fluctuations.