技术进步对中国电力行业环境效率提升影响的实证研究——基于SBM超效率-ML-Tobit三阶段分析法

Empirical Study on the Impact of Technological Progress on the Environmental Efficiency of China's Power Industry: Based on SBM Super Efficiency-ML-Tobit

本文综合采用SBM超效率模型和ML模型,从静态和动态的视角分别对2009-2018年中国30个省份电力行业环境效率及其增长率进行测度,并对静态效率和动态效率进行拆分,分析技术进步对其的影响;利用Tobit回归模型,对技术进步等因素对全国及六大电网区域电力行业环境效率及其增长率的影响进行实证检验。结果表明:研究期间中国电力行业环境效率年均值为0.769,还具有较大的提升空间;华中电网和东北电网区域的纯技术效率提升对环境效率的提升贡献较低;南方电网区域纯技术效率显著推动了环境效率的提升;中国电力行业环境效率以年均5.6%的水平提升,其中技术进步年均增长率为3.7%。技术进步对中国电力行业环境效率的提升贡献较大,“十二五”以来,中国电力行业技术进步速度在加快;技术进步是电力行业环境效率及其增长率的关键影响因素,对其具有显著正影响。建议继续加大科技投入、加强科技创新,以继续推动中国电力行业环境效率的提升;各区域应积极主动,且因地制宜地采取有效措施;加快核电等清洁电力能源的发展,优化电源结构。

TSBM super efficiency model and ML model are adopted to measure the environmental efficiency and its growth rate of China's power industry in 30 provinces from 2009 to 2018 from a static and dynamic perspective,the static efficiency and dynamic efficiency are splitted,and the impact of technological progress on them is analyzed;Using Tobit regression model,the impact of technological progress and other factors on the environmental efficiency and growth rate of power industry in China and six power grid regions is tested.The results show that the annual average environmental efficiency of China's power industry during the study period is 0.769,which still has a large room for improvement;The improvement of pure technical efficiency in Central China Power Grid and Northeast China Power Grid has a low contribution to the improvement of environmental efficiency;The regional pure technical efficiency of China Southern Power Grid has significantly promoted the improvement of environmental efficiency;The environmental efficiency of China's power industry has increased at an average annual rate of 5.6%,of which the average annual growth rate of technological progress is 3.7%.Technological progress has made a great contribution to the improvement of environmental efficiency of China's power industry.Since the 12th Five Year Plan,the technological progress of China's power industry has accelerated;Technological progress is a key factor affecting the environmental efficiency and growth rate of power industry,which has a significant positive impact on it.It is suggested to continue to increase scientific and technological investment and strengthen scientific and technological innovation,so as to continue to promote the improvement of environmental efficiency of China's power industry;All regions should be proactive and take effective measures according to local conditions,accelerate the development of clean electric energy such as nuclear power and optimize the power supply structure.