基于熵值法与灰色关联法的河北省农业保险发展评价

Evaluation of Agricultural Insurance Development in Hebei Province Based on Entropy Method and Grey Correlation Analysis Method

以河北省2008-2021年农业保险有关数据为依据,运用熵值法与灰色关联分析方法对河北省农业保险发展水平进行评价并对影响因素分析。结果表明:2009年至今,河北省农业保险发展水平呈现前期剧烈波动上升、后期相对平稳上升的发展态势,但农业保险发展水平在国内处于低位;影响因素中农林水财政支出与农业保险发展水平关联度最高,农村人均可支配收入、农民受教育程度的关联程度排名分别为第2和第3位,产业结构、人均国内生产总值、人均农作物播种面积、农业自然灾害成灾率对农业保险保费收入均有一定影响。因此建议加强政府对农业保险的支持力度、提高农村居民收入水平、提升农民受教育程度、加大保险产品创新及监管力度以促进河北省农业保险高质量发展。

Based on the data related to agricultural insurance in Hebei Province from 2008 to 2021,the en-tropy method and grey correlation analysis method were used to evaluate the development level of agricultural insurance in Hebei Province and analyze the influencing factors.The results showed that the development level of agricultural insurance in Hebei Province had shown a development trend of violent fluctuations in the early stage and relatively stable rise in the later stage since 2009,but the development level of agricultural insurance was at a low level in China.Among the influencing factors,the financial expenditure on agriculture,forestry,and water has the highest correlation with the development level of agricultural insurance.The correlation be-tween per capita disposable income in rural areas and the education level of farmers ranked the second and third.The industrial structure,per capita GDP,per capita crop planting area,and the incidence of natural dis-asters in agriculture all had a certain impact on the premium income of agricultural insurance.It is recommend-ed to strengthen government support for agricultural insurance,improve the income level of rural residents,en-hance the education level of farmers,and increase innovation and supervision of insurance products to promote the high quality development of agricultural insurance in Hebei Province.