新疆生产建设兵团农业生产碳排放时序特征及脱钩弹性分析

Analysis of Temporal Characteristics and Decoupling Elasticity of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps

采用碳排放系数法和Tapio脱钩模型测算2001~2020年研究区域的农业碳排放量,分析碳排放时序特征、结构特征、各地特征以及农业生产碳排放与农业产值之间的关系。结果表明:(1)2001~2020年,研究区域的碳排放量年均增速为5.67%,呈现“平稳增长—快速增长—低速增长”发展态势。2001~2007年为平稳增长期,环比增速持续提高,2007年达到峰值;2008~2013年为低速增长期,环比增长率持续波降低;2014~2020年为低速增长期,环比增速波动较大。生产要素碳排放量增幅差异较大,其中化肥、柴油的碳排量年均增速高于生产要素碳排放总量年均增长率。(2)研究区域碳排放结构发生变化。化肥碳排放量占比在2014年达到峰值后逐步降低,截止到2020年化肥碳排放量占比降低为38.05%;农药碳排放量占比在2005年达到峰值后波动下降,截止到2020年农药碳排放占比降低为3.33%;柴油碳排放量占比持续上升,从2000年的8%增长至2020年的9.1%。(3)2001~2020年,研究区域农业生产碳排放脱钩弹性指数为-0.0379~6.7221,分别呈现强脱钩、弱脱钩和扩张负脱钩3种状态,且以弱脱钩为主。提出加强总体部署,落实政策体系;倡导绿色农业,推进低碳发展;完善基础建设,开展全面行动的对策建议。

The carbon emission coefficient method and Tapio decoupling model were used to estimate the agri-cultural carbon emissions in the study area from 2001 to 2020.The temporal characteristics of carbon emis-sions,structural characteristics,regional characteristics and the relationship between agricultural carbon emis-sions and agricultural output value were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)From 2001 to 2020,the aver-age annual growth rate of carbon emissions in the study area was 5.67%,showing a development trend of steady growth—rapid growth—low growth.The period from 2001 to 2007 was a steady growth period,and the sequential growth rate continued to increase,reaching a peak in 2007.The period from 2008 to 2013 was a low growth period,and the sequential growth rate continued to decrease.The period from 2014 to 2020 was a low-speed growth period,and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate fluctuates greatly.The growth rate of carbon emissions of production factors varied greatly,among which the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions of fertilizer and diesel was higher than that of the total carbon emissions of production factors.(2)Regional carbon emission structure changed.After reaching the peak in 2014,the carbon emissions from chemical fertil-izers gradually decreased,and which decreased to 38.05%by 2020.After reaching the peak in 2005,the proportion of pesticide carbon emissions fluctuated and decreased,and by 2020,which decreased to 3.33%.The proportion of diesel carbon emissions continuesd to rise,from 8%in 2000 to 9.1%in 2020.(3)From 2001 to 2020,the decoupling elas-ticity index of agricultural carbon emissions in the study region ranged from-0.0379 to 6.7221,presenting three states of strong decoupling,weak decoupling and expanding negative decoupling respectively,and weak decoupling is the main one.The countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to strengthening overall deployment and implementing policy system,advocating green agriculture and promoting low-carbon development,and improving infrastructure and carrying out com-prehensive actions.