中国-新西兰自由贸易协定深度对出口贸易的影响探析

The Influence Regarding the Depth of China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreements on Export Trade

通过应用HMS方法和世界银行区域贸易协定数据库对中国和新西兰签订的自由贸易协定的“覆盖力(AC)”和“法律可执行性(LE)”进行测度,构建和计算“FTA总深度指数”“WTO+深度指数”“WTO-X深度指数”“核心深度指数”等共计15项指标对中新FTA深度进行衡量。同时对中新双边贸易的进出口额以及商品结构进行分析,并应用引力模型实证分析中新自贸协定的“WTO+”条款和“WTO-X”条款的深度对中国和新西兰出口贸易的影响。结果表明,自由贸易协定的深度越深,意味着中国对新西兰出口贸易的自由化程度越高,越有利于出口贸易规模的扩大。因此,中国要加快自由贸易协定的谈判和签署,注重FTA中不同条款的结合,从覆盖力和法律可执行性两方面提升FTA深度,研究和制定中国特色的自贸协定谈判模板。

This paper measures the"Agreement Coverage(AC)"and"Legally Enforceable(LE)"of the Free Trade Agreements(FTAs)signed by China and New Zealand by applying the HMS methodology and Regional Trade Agreement Database of the World Bank.In addition,a total of 15 indexes,including the FTA Total Depth Index,the WTO+Depth Index,the WTO-X Depth Index,and the Core Depth Index,are constructed and calculated to measure the depth of the FTAs between China and New Zealand.In the meanwhile,the import and export volume and commodity structure of China-New Zealand bilateral trade are analyzed,and the gravity model is used to empirically analyze the influence regarding the depth of the WTO+clause and WTO-X clause on China s export trade to New Zealand.The results show that the deeper the FTA,the higher the degree of liberalization of China s export trade to New Zealand,and the more conducive to the expansion of export trade.Therefore,China should speed up the negotiation and signing of FTAs,pay attention to the combination of different provisions in FTAs,improve the depth of FTAs in terms of AC and LE,study and formulate the FTA negotiation template with Chinese characteristics.