完全成本保险试点能激励粮食产出吗?

Does the Full-cost Insurance Pilot Program Increase Food Production?

政策性农业保险是重要的粮食生产风险管理工具,有助于提高农民种粮积极性。本文综合考虑风险保障水平、耕地资源禀赋等因素,从单位产出与种植规模两个方面构建农业保险对粮食产出激励效应的理论分析框架。在此基础上,以开展完全成本保险试点为准自然实验,利用2011-2022年的粮食主产省份县级面板数据检验开展完全成本保险试点对粮食生产的激励作用。研究结果表明,开展完全成本保险试点显著提高了粮食总产量。作用机制分析表明,开展完全成本保险试点通过激励粮食作物播种面积扩大实现了增产。异质性分析表明,当以农业风险水平区分试点地区时,开展完全成本保险试点仅在低风险地区有显著的粮食增产效应,并且这一增产效应是通过提高粮食单产实现的;开展完全成本保险试点对高风险地区的粮食产出并无显著激励,主要原因在于高风险地区粮食播种面积虽然显著扩大,但单产水平却显著下降。本文研究结论为充分认识完全成本保险对保障中国粮食安全的重大战略意义提供了经验证据,也为进一步细化该保险领域的制度设计提供了政策启示。

Policy-based agricultural insurance is an important risk management tool for crop production,which is theoretically helpful to improve farmers' enthusiasm for crop planting.This paper constructs a theoretical analytical framework for the incentive effect of agricultural insurance on food production in terms of unit output and cultivation scale,taking into account factors such as the level of compensation and endowment of arable land.Based on this,we utilize the implementation of the full-cost insurance pilot program as a natural experiment,and adopt the county-level panel data of major grain-producing areas from 2011 to 2022 to test the incentive effect of the pilot program on food production.The results show that the pilot program significantly increases grain output.The mechanism analysis shows that the pilot program achieves yield increase by encouraging the expansion of the sown area of grain crops.Heterogeneity analysis shows that when the pilot areas are categorized by the level of agricultural risk,the pilot program has a significant effect on food production only in areas with low level of agricultural risk,and this effect is achieved through an increase in food yields.The pilot program does not provide a significant incentive for grain output in areas with high level of agricultural risk,mainly because the sown area has increased significantly,with a significantly decreased yield per unit area.The conclusion of this paper provides empirical evidence for the strategic significance of full-cost insurance in ensuring China's foodsecurity,and policy implicationsforfurtherrefining the systemdesign of thisinsurance.