祁连山国家公园青海片区生态系统水文调节价值评估及分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Hydrological Regulation Value of Ecosystem in Qinghai Area of the Qilian Mountain National Park,China

生态系统水文调节服务对人类福祉有重要的影响,运用InVEST产水量模型和支持向量回归模型对祁连山国家公园青海片区生态系统水文调节价值进行了评估和预测。结果表明:(1)草地在祁连山国家公园青海片区生态系统水文调节中发挥了重要作用,2020年草地水文调节价值量为31.29亿元,占水文调节总价值的60.06%。(2)林地面积虽然不大,但其生态安全的保障作用明显,2020年的水文调节价值为7.25亿元,占水文调节总价值的13.92%。(3)2010—2020年,祁连山国家公园青海片区不同类型的生态系统水文调节实物量是增加的,年均增长2.24%,价值量年均增加约0.97%,价值量年均增长幅度小于实物量,主要是由部分生态系统水文调节价值下降引起的。(4)预测可知,2030年祁连山国家公园青海片区生态系统水文调节实物量、价值量较2020年均有所增加,实物量增加4.90亿t,价值量增加3.86%。

Ecosystem hydrological regulation services have an important impact on human well-being.In this paper,InVEST water yield model and Support Vector Regression(SVR)model are used to evaluate and predict the hydrological regulation value of ecosystem in Qinghai area of the Qilian Mountain National Park.The results show as follows:①Grassland plays an important role in hydrological regulation in Qinghai area of the Qilian Mountain National Park.In 2020,The hydrological regulation monetary value of grassland was RMB 3129 million yuan,accounted for 60.06%of the total value.②Although the area of forestland is not large,it plays an obvious role in ensuring ecological security.The hydrological regulation monetary value of forestland in 2020 was RMB 725 million yuan,accounting for 13.92%of the total hydrological regulation value.③From 2010 to 2020,the amount of hydrological regulation of different ecosystems in Qinghai area of the Qilian Mountain National Park increased by 2.24%annually,and the monetary value of hydrological regulation increased by about 0.97%annually,which was less than the annual growth rate of the physical value,mainly due to the decline of hydrological regulation monetary value of some ecosystems.④Compared with 2020,the amount of hydrological regulation physical and monetary value will increase by 490 million tons and 3.86%in 2030.