CA-Markov模型在流域景观格局演变与水土流失中的模拟预测

The Simulation and Prediction of CA-Markov Model in the Evolutionof Watershed Landscape Pattern and Soil Erosion

针对水土流失研究现状,提出一种基于元胞自动机-马尔科夫(Cellular Automation-Markov,CA-Marcov)模型的景观格局预测模型。通过对研究提出的CA-Marcov模型进行实证分析发现,该模型的误差率为7.06%,其性能优于其他对比模型。此外,利用该模型对2025年淮河流域景观格局变化及水土流失风险进行预测,结果显示淮河流域水土流失风险降低。表明研究提出的CA-Marcov模型在景观格局及水土流失中应用效果良好,可为景观格局优化及水土流失治理提供理论依据。

With more and more attention paid to soil erosion,a landscape pattern prediction model based on cellular automation-Markov(CA-Marcov)model is proposed.Empirical analysis of the proposed CA-Marcov model shows that the error rate is 7.06%,which is better than the other contrast models.In addition,the model predicted the change of landscape pattern and the risk of soil erosion in 2025,and found that the risk of soil erosion in the Huaihe river basin was reduced.In conclusion,the CA-Marcov model proposed has good results in landscape pattern and soil erosion,and can provide theoretical basis for landscape pattern optimization and soil erosion control.