大型能源集团一体化煤炭供应链运行机理建模与推演技术研究

Research on modeling and deduction technology for operating mechanism of integrated coal supply chain of large energy groups

大型能源集团一体化煤炭供应链规模大、结构复杂、影响因素多、动态变化较快,是一个典型的复杂系统。保障一体化煤炭供应链安全、高效、稳定运行是集团面临的一项长期、艰巨的任务。集团现有信息化系统无法提供未来趋势推演预判,不足以支持实时调度过程并快速做出响应,且处置策略依赖人工经验。通过一体化煤炭供应链运行机理建模及推演技术研究,对一体化煤炭供应链关键环节、业务网络连接、突发情况等对象的数理模型进行统一建模封装,构建集团一体化煤炭供应链仿真模型,开展应用案例仿真验证,为集团实时调度智能决策技术深化研究及应用奠定基础和提供指导。

The integrated coal supply chain of large energy group is a typical complex system with a large scale,complicated structure,multiple influencing factors,and rapid dynamic changes.The group is facing a long-term and arduous task of guaranteeing the safe,efficient and stable operation of the integrated coal supply chain.The existing information system of the group is unable to provide future trend prediction and is insufficient to support real-time scheduling processes and respond quickly,and the disposal strategy relies on manual experience.Through the research on modeling and deduction technology for operating mechanism of integrated coal supply chain,the mathematical models of the critical links,business network connections,emergencies,a simulation model for the group's integrated coal supply chain was constructed,and application case simulation verification was carried out to lay the foundation and provide guidance for the deepening research and application of the group's real-time scheduling intelligent decision-making technology.