基于遥感与GIS的江西省洪涝灾害评估研究

Flood disaster assessment in Jiangxi Province based on remote sensing and GIS

针对江西省洪涝灾害评估方面综合性分析研究不足,且指标选取不够全面、精度不高的问题,本文主要从洪涝灾害危险性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力三个方面,构建江西省洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系。首先,利用层次分析法确定指标权重。其次,基于地理信息系统空间分析功能,结合模糊综合评价法对洪涝灾害风险进行分析。结果表明:①江西省洪涝灾害高危险性集中分布在东北部地区,有景德镇市、上饶市、鹰潭市和抚州市部分;抚州市和赣州市的防灾减灾薄弱性较弱;高暴露性集中分布在南昌市。②综合来看,江西省东北部区域的风险性明显要高于其他区域,南部区域和部分西北部区域风险性较小。研究结论能够为江西省的防灾减灾工作提供技术参考。

In recent years,with the rapid development of the world economy,science,and technology,human production activities have made the earth’s environment and climate more and more harsh.Climate anomalies have become more frequent around the world,and extreme weather events have led to meteorological and hydrological disasters.Based on Jiangxi Province’s current flood disaster risk assessment,it is found that the province has not received sufficiently thorough study,and that the correctness and comprehensiveness of the index data selection are inadequate.The conclusions of this study are aimed at providing a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in Jiangxi Province in the future.The study area is located in southeast China and is mainly mountainous and hilly.It has a subtropical monsoon humid climate,abundant rainfall-70%of the province’s annual rainfall in summer-many lakes,more than 100 large and small rivers,and a basin-like topography that is high in the south and low in the north.In this paper,the flood disaster risk assessment index system in Jiangxi Province was built using the following index data:absolute elevation,relative elevation,river network density,precipitation,population density,precipitation,GDP per unit area,per capita bed,per capita disposable income and regional GDP.The 10-year average rainfall data is aggregated and the DEM elevation data is used with higher accuracy.The Jiangxi Province flood disaster risk assessment index system was constructed mainly from three aspects:flood disaster risk,exposure,and disaster prevention and reduction ability.It was based on GIS spatial analysis and function.The analytic Hierarchy process(AHP)is used to determine the index weight,and the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method(FCA)is used to analyze the flood disaster risk.The results show that the risk in Jiangxi Province’s northeast region is significantly higher than in other regions,while the risk in the province’s southern and partially northwest regions is lower.These differences can be attributed primarily to the density of river network,topography,and climate conditions.The region with flat terrain,higher density of river network,and more precipitation is more prone to flood disasters.The northeast region of Jiangxi Province has a risk that is significantly higher than other regions in terms of comprehensive risk,exposure,and disaster prevention and mitigation ability.The risk in the southern region and part of the northwest region is lower,primarily due to the river network density,topography,and climatic conditions.More comprehensive and systematic factors need to be considered in future research.Factors such as vegetation cover,land use,distance from rivers,and typhoon activity,and the applicability and credibility of flood hazard risk assessment need to be further discussed.