2023/2024年厄尔尼诺事件对巴拿马运河区域干旱的影响分析

Impact of the 2023/2024 El Niño event on drought in the Panama Canal region

ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation)是短期气候年际变化中最强的信号,它对全球气候的短期变化有着重要影响。ENSO虽然发生在热带太平洋地区,但其影响却波及全球。例如,厄尔尼诺期间,巴拿马地区容易发生干旱,这将对巴拿马运河的航运产生重大影响。近期报道显示,自2023年春季以来,巴拿马运河地区一直受到干旱影响,造成运河水位异常偏低,出现近8 a来最严重的堵塞情况。针对这一极端现象,采用标准化降水蒸散发指数(Standardized Precipitation Evaportranspiration Index,SPEI)分析巴拿马运河区域的干旱状况,探究干旱累积效应在不同时间尺度的显著性。进一步从ENSO(以Niño3指数为代表)事件对巴拿马运河区域降水及蒸发的物理影响角度出发,深入分析该区域干旱成因,并基于最新的ENSO预测结果,预判巴拿马运河区域干旱在未来半年内仍将会维持并进一步加剧,对该区域应对未来干旱状况具有重要意义。

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is the strongest signal of interannual change of short-term climate,and it has an important impact on global short-term climate change.Although ENSO occurs in the tropical Pacific region,its effects are felt world⁃wide.For example,during the El Niño event,the Panama region is prone to drought,which will have a significant impact on shipping on the Panama Canal.Recent reports show that the Panama Canal region has been affected by drought since the spring of 2023,resulting in an abnormally low water level in the canal and the worst blockage in nearly 8 years.In view of this extreme phenomenon,the stan⁃dardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI)is used to analyze the drought conditions in the Panama Canal region,and the significance of the cumulative effect of drought on different time scales is explored.Furthermore,from the perspective of the physical ef⁃fects of ENSO(represented by Niño3 index)events on precipitation and evaporation in the Panama Canal region,this study analyzes the causes of drought in the Panama Canal region.According to the current ENSO prediction started from October 2023,it is predicted that the drought in the Panama Canal region will continue and further intensify in the following six months,which is of great significance for the region to cope with the future drought situation.