中国养老服务的人力资源困境与智能养老选择

Human Resource Dilemma and Intelligent Choice of Elderly Care Service in China

有效需求不足与有效供给不足并存,是当前中国养老服务发展中不容忽视的现象。通过大样本实态调查,发现养老服务人力资源供给短缺是有效需求与有效供给双重不足的重要影响因素,也是提升中国养老服务有效供给的难点与关键。中国养老服务面临的人力资源困境主要表现为:家庭照料人力不断减少,失能半失能老人专业护理服务人员短缺,尚未伴随养老服务行业共同成长的新就业状态。第一、二、三次科技革命引发的系列工业革命,使人的体力拓展了数亿倍,推动了社会生产力发展与人类社会变革;第四次科技革命通过发掘人脑潜质,扩展人类智力,以智能制造的诞生与发展为核心标志,并将揭示人脑智能机理与机制的前沿科学技术难题作为近期目标。智能养老是“知与行”的统一,强调将未来养老活动的构想、设计、方案付诸实践。养老服务人力资源短缺是人口老龄化各国面临的共同难题。一些老龄化严重的国家开始酝酿通过养老服务与智能科技的深度融合,解决人力资源短缺问题,特别是主要发达国家积极依据本国国情,制定以科学技术为基础、符合本国需要、具有推广价值的发展智能养老替代人力的全局性方案。目前,中国智能养老尚处于以智能穿戴、远程监控等信息技术与设备为依托,面向独自居家或入住机构的健康老人、半自理老人,集检测、提醒、报警、信息传递于一体的传统养老服务功能拓展阶段。建议以建设智能养老服务体系为战略目标,立足当下,将已经开始推广并被市场接受的智能穿戴、远程监控等智能装备和方式全面镶嵌、注入现有城乡养老服务体系,全面提升居家、社区、机构、医养结合等服务水平,达到现阶段应该有的智能穿戴、远程监控等国际养老服务标准;着眼长远,重点研究、开发、制造、推广高中档替代人力的具有陪伴、服务、护理综合功能的养老服务机器人;形成全国一盘棋的市场配置资源和国家在资源、体制、机制、政策等方面全力支持的战略格局。

The coexistence of insufficient effective demand and insufficient effective supply is a phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the development of elderly care services in China.Through a large sample survey,it is found that the shortage of human resources supply for elderly care services is an important factor affecting both effective demand and effective supply,and is also the difficulty and key to improving the effective supply of elderly care services in China.The human resource dilemma faced by China's elderly care service is mainly manifested as the continuous reduction of family care manpower,the shortage of professional nursing service personnel for the disabled and semi-disabled elderly,and the employment state that has not grown together with the elderly care service industry.The industrial revolution triggered by the first,second and third scientific and technological revolutions has expanded human physical strength by hundreds of millions of times and promoted the development of social productive forces and the transformation of human society.The fourth scientific and technological revolution,by tapping the potential of the human brain and expanding human intelligence,takes the birth and development of intelligent manufacturing as the core symbol,and takes solving the mechanism and mechanism of human brain intelligence as the important frontier science and technology problems as the short-term goal.Intelligent elderly care is the unity of“knowledge and action”,emphasizing the“concept,design and plan of future elderly care activities”into practice.The shortage of human resources for elderly care service is a common problem faced by all countries with aging population.Some countries with serious aging problem begin to plan to solve the problem of shortage of human resources through the deep integration of elderly care services and intelligent technology;In particular,major developed countries have actively formulated overall plans for the development of intelligent elderly care replacement manpower with scientific and technological basis,in line with national needs and with promotion value according to their national conditions.At present,China's smart elderly care is still in the stage of expanding traditional elderly care service functions based on information technology and equipment such as smart wear and remote monitoring,for healthy elderly people living alone at home or settled institutions,semi-self-reliant elderly people,and integrating detection,reminder,alarm and information transmission.To meet international standards for elderly care services,it's recommended to strategically construct an intelligent elderly care service system.Leveraging existing smart wearables,remote monitoring,and other endorsed technologies,integrating them into the urban and rural care systems,would significantly elevate service standards across home,community,institutional,and medical care.Long-term strategies should focus on research,development,and implementation of high and mid-range service robots catering to comprehensive needs.Establishing a national strategic framework with state support across resources,institutions,policies,and mechanisms is pivotal for effective resource allocation and comprehensive backing.