少难成家、老无所依?性别失衡下的男性婚姻挤压与家庭发展风险

Male Marriage Squeeze and Family Development Risk under Gender Imbalance

中国的出生性别比偏高长达近40年,男性人口过剩导致的男性婚姻挤压已带来系列严重后果,婚姻成本不断攀升、高价彩礼难以遏制、农村家庭发展面临严峻挑战。基于西安交通大学人口与发展研究所与法国国立人口研究所合作的“中国女性缺失背景下男性家庭性别角色和家庭生活调查”数据和西安交通大学新型城镇化与可持续发展课题组于2018年在全国11个省份收集的农业户籍人口专项调查数据,构建农村大龄未婚男性家庭发展风险分析框架与农村男性婚姻成本分析框架,使用定量分析方法,界定出农村大龄未婚男性家庭发展风险的主要场域,为婚姻场域、健康场域与养老场域;识别出各场域典型风险,为成婚风险、性健康风险与自身养老风险;构建出以国家治理模式为核心,以社会发展制度与家庭发展政策为支撑,以弱势群体家庭发展促进工作平台为突破点的农村大龄未婚男性家庭发展风险治理模式;定义了农村男性婚姻成本概念,包含婚房、彩礼、媒人中介费、婚礼四要素,识别出农村男性婚姻成本四种类型,为偏重彩礼型、偏重婚房型、彩礼-婚房并重型与混合型;揭示出农村男性婚姻成本变迁特征、结构性差异与关键影响因素;在对各级政府现行农村地区彩礼治理政策进行回溯分析与效果评价的基础上,提出加强城乡间、区域间资源合理配置,促进就地城镇化,提升农村人口教育水平与职业保障,加强人力资本投资,全方位调研地区婚姻成本实践内涵,因地制宜推进农村地区移风易俗,坚持“党建引领、党员先行”,充分挖掘村庄内生治理资源,依托群众性自治组织加强引导,建立政府主导、社区与家庭参与的婚介机构等政策建议。

China's sex ratio at birth has been high for more than three decades,and the male marriage squeeze caused by male overpopulation has brought a series of serious consequences,including rising marriage costs,high bride prices,the increasing risk of lossing of chances to get merried and severe challenges to the development of rural families.This study puts forward research frameworks for the analysis of risk to rural involuntary bachelors'family development and its influencing factors and the study of rural male marriage cost and its influencing factors in the process of urbanization.This study systematically analyzes the family development risk of older unmarried men in rural areas and the marriage cost practice of rural men and its key influencing factors by using the data of the XJTU(China)-INED(French)project and the data of the survey of agricultural registered population via quantitative analysis methods.The contributions of this study are manifold.It delineates key areas of risk and pinpoints typical challenges affecting the family development of involuntary bachelor men in rural settings.These encompass risks related to family structure expansion,sexual health,and support for aging family members.Drawing from these findings,the study formulates a collaborative governance framework to address these risks and proposes effective governance strategies.Additionally,it identifies four distinct categories of marriage costs among rural men,shedding light on the characteristics,trends,and influencing factors shaping these costs at both macro and micro levels.Furthermore,the urbanization process not only promots the individual resources,but also pushes the marriage costs rising,increases rural married men economic burden.Based on the proportion characteristics of the four elements of rural male marriage cost,this study identifies the four types of rural men's marriage cost,namely the“bride-price&marital-housing”(referring to the type of paying equally for the expenses of bride price and marriage house),the“mixed”(referring to the type of paying equally for the expenses of matchmaker,wedding,bride price,and marital housing),the“bride-price biased”(referring to the type of paying more for the expenses of bride price),and the“marital-housing biased”(referring to the type of paying more for the expenses of marital housing),which extends the analysis of the single dimension of marriage cost in previous studies.In addition,this study conducts a retrospective analysis and evaluation of existing policies,culminating in policy suggestions aimed at addressing the identified challenges.Recommendations include advocating for the rational allocation of resources between urban and rural areas,fostering local urbanization,and enhancing the education level and job security of the rural population.Tailored to local conditions,the suggestions endorse the primacy of Party building guidance,urging reliance on internal governance resources within villages and emphasizing community and family participation through government-led matchmaking agencies.