基于时空演变对中原区经济发展差异的计量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Economic Development Differences in the Central Plains Based on Temporal and Spatial Evolution

为促进区域协调发展,首先,将人均GDP作为衡量经济发展水平的指标,并采用Dagum基尼系数等方法,测度分析2012—2019年中原经济区经济发展差距的时空演变趋势;其次,引入产值影响力分析郑州对中原经济区的产值影响度及综合影响度,并构建ARIMA预测模型对未来8年郑州对中原区经济影响力度进行预测.结果表明,一方面,近年来中原经济区各地区之间的绝对差距在逐年扩大,中原经济区区域间经济发展差距主要源于郑州都市圈与中原副中心城市群以及郑州都市圈与其他城市群之间,郑州都市圈和其他两个区域之间的经济发展差距对总差距的贡献率均在40%以上,中原经济区各区域间的经济发展差距大于各区域内的发展差距;另一方面,郑州对中原经济区整体影响力不断提高,且未来8年将继续推动地区经济发展.

Aiming at the problem of regional economic development gaps to promote regional coordinated development,firstly,per capita GDP is used as an indicator to measure the level of economic development,Then the Dagum Gini coefficient and other methods are used to measure and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution trend of the economic development gap in the Central Plains Economic Zone from 2012 to 2019;Secondly,introduce the influence of output value to analyze the influence of Zhengzhou on the output value of the Central Plains Economic Zone and the comprehensive influence,and build an ARIMA prediction model to predict the economic impact of Zhengzhou on the Central Plains Economic Zone in the next 8 years.The results show that:on the one hand,in recent years,the absolute gap between the various regions of the Central Plains Economic Zone has been expanding year by year,and the economic development gap between the regions in the Central Plains Economic Zone is mainly due to the Zhengzhou metropolitan area and the Central Plains sub-center urban agglomeration,as well as the Zhengzhou metropolitan area and other urban agglomerations.between.Among them,the economic development gap between Zhengzhou metropolitan area and the other two regions contributes more than 40%to the total gap,and the economic development gap between regions in the Central Plains Economic Zone is larger than the development gap within each region;on the other hand,the overall influence of Zhengzhou on the Central Plains Economic Zone is continuously increasing,and it will continue to promote regional economic development in the next eight years,which provides theoretical guidance for narrowing the economic development differences in the Central Plains Economic Zone.