黄河流域水-能源-生态系统协同增效战略体系构建研究

Research on the Construction Path of Coordinated Strategy of Water-Energy-Ecosystem of the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家重大战略加快推进实施,流域水资源、能源、生态安全作为战略实施的核心要素、基础动力和约束性要求,三者形成互为基础、相互依存、彼此促进的有机整体.本文构建了水-能源-生态系统协同增效概念模型,评估了黄河流域水资源承载、生态系统质量、碳排放并揭示了其驱动因素,系统分析了黄河流域水-能源-生态系统之间的纽带关系,构建了黄河流域水-能源-生态系统协同增效战略体系.结果表明:(1)2021年黄河流域水资源严重超载,除青海省和四川省以外,其他7个省区水资源开发潜力很小;同时流域生态系统敏感脆弱、生态系统服务功能重要,极度、重度敏感区域面积占比共计52%,生态系统服务功能极重要、较重要区域面积占比共计63.2%.2005-2021年黄河流域CO_(2)排放量上升,但排放强度总体下降,青海省、甘肃省和山西省CO_(2)排放强度下降明显.(2)自然生态本底脆弱、天然河川径流量减少、供水量平稳但耗水量增加、用水结构不合理、上游用水效率不高、以煤为主的能源消费结构是导致黄河流域生态系统敏感、水资源超载、碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素.(3)黄河流域水-能源-生态系统相互依存、相互影响,具体表现在流域水量减少直接影响生态系统质量,干流人工化导致河流生态系统受损,水资源过度开发利用引发生态环境问题,忽略水资源承载的生态治理引发新问题,煤炭开采加剧水资源短缺造成生态恶化,能源利用效率较低不利于污染物和CO_(2)协同减排等方面.基于以上分析,提出以“刚性约束”为核心综合调控水资源、以“以水定绿”为核心实施一体保护修复、以“清洁低碳”为核心加快能源多元转型、以“联动增效”为核心推进流域协同治理、以“工程引领”为核心推动协同目标实现等对策措施.

The implementation of ecological protection and high-quality development strategies in the Yellow River Basin is accelerating.Basin water resources,energy and ecological security are the core elements,basic driving forces and restraint requirements for the implementation of the strategy.The three constitute an organic whole that is mutually based,interdependent and mutually complementary.In this article the water resources carrying capacity,ecosystem quality,and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin were evaluated,and their driving factor were revealed;the relationship between water-energy-ecosystem was analyzed,and a collaborative strategic system of water-energy-ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin was established.The results showed that:(1)The water resources in the Yellow River Basin are seriously overloaded.Except for Qinghai Province and Sichuan Province,the other 7 provinces(autonomous regions)have little potential for water resources development.The area of extremely sensitive and severely sensitive ecosystems accounted for 52%,and the area of extremely important and relatively important ecosystems accounted for 63.2%.Carbon dioxide emissions increased,but the overall emission intensity decreased,and among them the carbon dioxide emission intensity of Qinghai,Gansu and Shanxi provinces decreased significantly.(2)The fragile natural ecological background,reduced natural runoff from rivers,increased water consumption due to stable water supply,unreasonable water use structure,low upstream water use efficiency,and coal-dominated energy consumption structure are the main reasons for the sensitive ecosystem,water resource overload and increased carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.(3)Water,energy and ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin are interdependent and interact with each other.Specifically,the reduction in water volume in the watershed directly affects the quality of the ecosystem.Artificial development of the main stream leads to the destruction of the river ecosystem.Over-exploitation and utilization of water resources lead to ecological environmental problems.Ecological management that ignores ecological governance reduces the carrying capacity of water resources and causes new problems.Coal mining aggravates water shortages.Ecological deterioration and low energy utilization efficiency is not conducive to the coordinated reduction of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions.Based on the above analysis,this paper put forward countermeasures such as comprehensive management of water resources with‘rigid constraint’as the core,implementation of integrated protection and restoration with‘water body greening’as the core,and acceleration of diversified energy transformation with‘clean and low carbon’as the core,promotion of collaborative governance of river basins with‘linkage efficiency’as the core,and promotion of collaborative goals with‘engineering leadership’as the core.