干旱与人群死亡关联的流行病学研究进展

Epidemiological research progress on association of drought with mortality

在气候变化背景下,干旱可能会变得更严重和频繁。干旱不仅会影响经济,加剧环境污染和恶化,对生态环境造成严重的负面影响,还可通过多种途径直接或间接地危害人群健康。本文系统地收集和梳理国内外干旱与人群死亡关联的研究,介绍了干旱与全死因死亡、慢性非传染病死亡、传染病死亡以及伤害死亡的关联。研究结果表明干旱与人群死亡风险有关,可导致心肺疾病、癌症、痢疾、伤害等多种疾病死亡风险增加;干旱越严重死亡风险相应增加;农村男性、老龄人口与儿童是干旱的脆弱人群。但目前关于干旱与人群死亡的研究尚不够深入,今后需要开展更多的研究。本文综述了目前干旱与人群死亡的研究现状和存在的问题,并指出今后的研究方向,可为今后相关研究提供借鉴。

Drought is expected to be more severe and frequent due to climate change.Drought exerts not only extensive impacts on economy and environment,but also direct or indirect impacts on human health.This review systematically collected studies exploring the association between drought and human mortality,and summarized the associations between drought and all-cause mortality,chronic non-communicable disease mortality,communicable disease mortality,and injury mortality.The results revealed that drought was significantly associated with human mortality,leading to an elevated mortality risk of cardiovascular diseases,respiratory diseases,cancers,diarrhea,and injuries;serious drought increased much more mortality risk than mild drought;males in rural areas,the elderly,and children were vulnerable populations to drought.However,in-depth studies on the association of drought with human mortality are limited,which calls for related studies in the future.This review summarized the current research status and existing problems in drought and population death,and pointed out the future research direction,which can provide reference for future related research.