省域数字经济发展与城市商业银行零售业务转型

Development of Provincial Digital Economy and Retail Business Transformation of Urban Commercial Banks

文章立足于城商行零售业务转型的实践,从信贷资产配置的视角出发,研究了省域数字经济发展给城商行“资产端”零售贷款占比带来的影响。研究发现:数字经济可以助推城商行零售业务转型,对其“资产端”的零售贷款占比具有显著的促进作用。一方面,这种促进作用主要集中于个人经营性贷款、个人消费贷款和个人汽车贷款,对于个人住房按揭贷款则表现出抑制作用;另一方面,对于资产规模较大和东部地区的城商行,数字经济的促进作用更为明显。机制检验表明:数字经济可以“赋能”城商行的风险管理和成本管理,进而促进其“资产端”零售贷款占比的提升。调节效应检验表明:通过“改善民生质量、提升司法质量、改善城市人居环境质量”优化零售贷款业务的发展环境,可以强化数字经济对城商行“资产端”零售贷款占比的促进作用。此外,数字经济背景下,城商行“资产端”的“零售贷款占比提升”是以“对公贷款占比降低”为代价的,即存在“替代效应”,且在经济下行期尤为明显。

This article is based on the practice of retail business transformation of urban commercial banks.From the perspective of credit asset allocation,it studies the impact of the development of the provincial digital economy on the proportion of retail loans on the asset side of urban commercial banks.The results show that:the digital economy can promote the retail business transformation of urban commercial banks,and increase the proportion of retail loans.On the one hand,this promoting effect mainly focuses on personal business loans,personal consumption loans,and personal vehicle loans,while showing a restraining effect on personal housing mortgage loans.On the other hand,for urban commercial banks with larger asset size and in the eastern region,the promoting effect of the digital economy is more pronounced.Mechanism tests show that:the digital economy can empower urban commercial banks’risk management and cost management,thereby promoting the increase in the proportion of retail loanson their asset side.The adjustment effect test shows that:by improving the quality of people’s livelihood,enhancing the quality of justice,and improving the quality of urban living environment to optimize the development environment of retail loan business,the promotion effect of the digital economy can be strengthened.In addition,in the context of the digital economy,the increase in the proportion of retail loans on the asset side of urban commercial banks is at the expense of the reduction in the proportion of corporate loans,which means there is a substitution effect,especially in the downturn of the economy.