基于LMDI的吉林西部地区粮食产量变化的影响因素解析

Factors Affecting Grain Yield Change in Western Jilin Province Based on the LMDI

吉林西部地区是吉林省粮食生产的增长极,是促进吉林省粮食产能持续稳定增长的重要保障区域。本研究应用LMDI模型系统分析了2000—2019年吉林西部地区粮食产量变化及其影响因素,量化了粮食播种面积、种植结构、粮食单产对粮食产量变化的效应大小,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明,2000—2019年吉林西部地区粮食产量增加825.02万t,播种面积效应起到明显的正向作用,增产452.33万t,结构效应增产141.38万t,单产效应增产231.32万t,贡献占比分别为54.83%、17.14%和28.04%。从时间变化上看,面积效应2009年出现最高值194.94万t,2017年出现最低值-74.86万t;结构效应2004年出现最高值74.54万t,2002年出现最低值-21.66万t;单产效应在时间上波动强烈,最高值出现在2005年(407.47万t),最低值出现在2009年(-429.69万t)。在空间分布上,面积效应最高值为长岭县,最低值在宁江区;结构效应最高值在扶余市,最低值在通榆县;单产效应最高值在前郭县,最低值在洮北区。受脆弱生态环境约束,未来吉林西部作为资源脆弱地区应谨慎扩大耕地面积,以优化种植结构、提升粮食单产为主,实现粮食长期可持续增产。

The western Jilin province is both the growth pole of grain production and an important guarantee area to promote the sustainable and stable growth of grain production capacity in Jilin province.Using the LMDI model,this paper systematically analyzed the changes of grain yield and its influencing factors,quantified the effects of grain sown area,planting structure,and grain yield per unit area on grain yield changes and their temporal and spatial characteristics in western Jilin province from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:the grain output in western Jilin province increased by 8.2502 million tons from 2000 to 2019,in which the sown area effect played an obvious positive role,increasing the output by 4.5233 million tons,the structural effect increasing by1.4138 million tons,and the unit yield effect increased by 2.3123 million tons,and the proportions of the above mentioned three effects were 54.83%,17.14%and 28.04%,respectively.From the perspective of time changes,the area effect had the highest value of 1.9494 million tons in 2009,and the lowest value of-0.7486 million tons in 2017;the structural effect had the highest value of 0.7454 million tons in 2004 and the lowest value of-0.2166 million tons in 2002;yield effect fluctuated strongly in time,the highest value appeared in 2005(4.0747 million tons),and the lowest value appeared in 2009(-4.2969 million tons).In terms of spatial distribution,the highest value of the area effect is in Changling county,the lowest value in Ningjiang district;the highest value of the structural effect is in Fuyu county,the lowest value in Tongyu county;and the highest value of the yield effect is in Qianguo county,the lowest value in Taobei district.Constrained by the fragile ecological environment,western Jilin,as a resource fragile area,should carefully expand the area of cultivated land in the future,focusing on optimizing the planting structure and improving the grain yield per unit area,so as to achieve a long-term sustainable increase in grain production.