中国进口中东欧国家农产品影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的因素分解及测算

Influencing Factors of China's Import of Agricultural Products from Central and Eastern European Countries—Factor Decomposition and Calculation Based on CMS Model

为探索中国进口中东欧国家农产品贸易波动的影响因素,扩大中国自中东欧国家农产品进口,本研究基于2012—2021年联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)数据,运用修正的恒定市场份额(CMS)模型,从结构效应、竞争力效应和交叉效应3个方面对中国进口中东欧双方农产品贸易的影响因素进行分解。CMS模型为评估中国进口中东欧国家农产品市场份额的变化、揭示中东欧国家在中国进口市场中的竞争地位变化提供了一个研究框架。本研究深入探讨了中国进口中东欧国家商品和服务结构的调整,审视了从中东欧国家进口的产品和服务类型的演变。结果显示:增长效应是影响中东欧国家对中国出口农产品的首要因素,表明中国农产品需求扩张是中国进口中东欧农产品增长的重要推力;中国进口中东国家农产品结构效应在逐步降低,综合竞争力效应则在稳步上升;中东欧的出口结构稳定性较强,但交叉效应呈现负相关关系,克服交叉效应的阻碍作用是应对中东欧对中国出口份额减少的有效方法。最后,从拓展市场增长点、优化产品结构、提高产品市场竞争力、推进多边合作等方面提出了促进中国和中东欧国家农产品贸易的对策建议。

In order to explore the factors affecting the fluctuation of China's import of agricultural products from Central and Eastern European countries(CEEC)and expand China's import of agricultural products from CEEC,by using the revised constant market share(CMS)model based on the 2012-2021 UN Comtrade data,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of China's import of agricultural products from CEEC from three aspects of structure effect,competitiveness effect and cross-effect.The CMS model provides a research framework for assessing the changes in the market share of agricultural products imported by China from CEEC and revealing the changes in the competitive position of CEEC in China's import market.This paper explored the restructuring of China's imports of goods and services from CEEC in depth,and examined the evolution of the types of products and services imported from CEEC.The results showed that the growth effect is the primary factor affecting the export of agricultural products from CEEC to China,indicating that the expansion of China's demand for agricultural products is an important driving force for the growth of China's import of agricultural products from CEEC;the structural effect of China's imports of agricultural products from CEEC is gradually decreasing,while the comprehensive competitiveness effect is steadily increasing;the export structure of CEEC is relatively stable,but the cross-effect shows a negative correlation,and overcoming the obstacle of cross-effect is an effective way to deal with the decrease of export share of CEEC to China.Finally,suggestions and countermeasures to improve the agricultural products trade of China-CEEC were put forward from expanding the market growth point,optimizing product mix;improving product market competitiveness,and advancing multilateral cooperation and so on.