华东地区台风气候特征及危险性分析

Climatic Characteristics and Risk Analysis of Typhoon in East China

基于2001-2020年影响华东地区的90个台风资料,利用统计学方法,分析台风年际、月际及登陆分布特征,采用信息扩散理论方法,统计风和雨2个主要致灾因子发生概率,在此基础上,开展台风致灾因子危险性评价。结果表明:影响华东地区的台风以强台风和台风为主,年均4.5个,主要集中在7-9月,8月最多,登陆中国台湾省频次最多,其次为福建省和浙江省;台风的最大风速在30~40 m/s的概率较大,最大降雨量在200~400 mm的概率较大;福建省、浙江省和江西省的台风致灾因子危险性较大,为台风严重影响区;山东省和安徽省的台风致灾因子危险性中等,为中度影响区;江苏省和上海市的台风致灾因子危险性较小,为轻度影响区。

Based on the data of 90 typhoons affecting East China from 2001 to 2020,annual and monthly distribution and landing characteristics of typhoons were analyzed by using statistical method,and occurrence probability of two main disaster-causing factors(wind and rain)were calculated by information diffusion.Then risk assessment of typhoon disaster-causing factors was carried out.The results showed that:the typhoon types were mainly strong typhoon and typhoon,annual average number affecting East China was 4.5,mainly concentrated in July-September,especially in August,landing Taiwan region was the most frequent,followed by Fujian and Zhejiang provinces;The probability of the maximum wind speed in 30-40 m/s was high,and probability of maximum rainfall in 200-400 mm was high.Fujian,Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces had highest risk levels of typhoon disaster-causing factors,serious typhoon impacting areas.Shandong and Anhui provinces had medium risk levels of typhoon disaster-causing factors,moderate typhoon impacting areas.Jiangsu and Shanghai had the lowest risk levels of typhoons disastercausing factors,light typhoon impacting areas.