老年人家庭代际关系模式及其影响因素研究——基于代际双向报告的K均值聚类分析

Intergenerational Relationship Patterns and Their Influencing Factors in Elderly Families:K-means Cluster Analysis Based on Two-way Report

在传统的代际关系模式研究中,数据往往来自家庭中父母或子女一方的报告,然而仅凭借“一面之词”对代际关系进行测量真的准确吗?这一问题的背后透视出当前国内相关研究中双向报告视角的缺失。利用2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用K均值聚类分析及多层Logistic回归方法,探究当前中国老年人家庭中代际关系的双向报告状况、代际关系模式及其影响因素。研究结果表明:首先,老年父母的代际关系报告平均得分要略低于成年子女的报告平均得分,但两者间并不存在显著差异,代际利益假说未获支持。其次,基于双向报告的聚类结果,可将老年人家庭代际关系具体划分为结构维度上的“亲子一致型”、“亲近子疏型”、“亲疏子近型”模式与水平维度上的“亲子和睦型”、“亲子有隙型”、“亲子疏离型”模式。最后,从代际关系模式的影响因素来看,代际结构、老年父母特征及成年子女特征均会在结构维度与水平维度上产生显著影响,而家庭特征仅在水平维度上产生显著影响。简言之,两代人的年龄差距越大、父母年龄越小、子女年龄越大,越可能形成评价一致的代际关系;两代人的年龄差距越大、两代人的性别一致、父母年龄越小、父母获得子女支持以及在城镇家庭中,越可能形成和睦的代际关系。

In the traditional research on the pattern of intergenerational relationship,the data are often from the reports of parents or children in the family.However,is it accurate to measure intergenerational relations only by“one side”story.This problem reveals the lack of two-way reporting perspective in the current domestic research.Based on the data of 2020 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),the paper uses K-means cluster analysis and multi-layer Logistic regression method to explore the bidirectional reporting status,intergenerational relationship pattern and influencing factors of the current Chinese elderly families.The results show that:Firstly,the average intergenerational score reported by elder parents was slightly lower than the average score reported by adult children,however there was no significant difference,which indicated the intergenerational benefit hypothesis is not supported.Secondly,based on the results of two-way report clustering,the intergenerational relationship of the elderly family can be specifically divided into“parent-child consistency type”,“close parent and distant child type”,“distant parent and close child type”in the structural dimension and“parent-child harmony type”,“parent-child gap type”and“parent-child estrangement type”in the horizontal dimension.Finally,from the perspective of influencing factors of intergenerational relationship pattern,intergenerational structure,characteristics of elderly parents and characteristics of adult children all have significant effects on structural dimension and horizontal dimension,while family characteristics only have significant effects on horizontal dimension.In short,the greater the age gap between the two generations,the younger the parents and the older the children,the more likely to form an intergenerational relationship of consistent evaluation;The greater the age gap between the two generations,the gender consistency between the two generations,the younger the parents,the parents with the support of their children,and the urban families,the more likely to form a harmonious intergenerational relationship.