三江源国家公园人兽冲突风险评价

Risk Assessment of Human-animal Conflict in Sanjiangyuan National Park

人兽冲突风险图揭示了风险的空间格局,有助于确定减轻野生动物肇事风险的优先区域。以三江源国家公园所涉4县为研究区域,以乡镇为研究单元,基于区域灾害系统理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个方面构建人兽冲突风险评价模型并对研究区的人兽冲突空间风险和总体风险进行综合评价。结果表明:人兽冲突风险影响因素包括兽类密度、肇事次数、归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)、人口密度、野生猎物密度、距河流距离、距居民点距离和牲畜密度。三江源国家公园人兽冲突风险具有明显的空间分异规律。风险评价结果总体上中部高于东部和南部,高风险区域主要分布在长江源园区治多县、曲麻莱县的乡镇,较高风险以上区域占比达97.07%,表明三江源国家公园人兽冲突风险总体较高。研究结果为确定人兽冲突风险影响因素和精准防控野生动物肇事提供科学依据。

The human-animal conflict risk map reveals the spatial pattern of risk and helps to identify priority areas for mitigating the risk of wildlife accidents.This study takes four counties involved in Sanjiangyuan National Park as research area and the township as the research unit.Based on the regional disaster system theory,we constructed a human-animal conflict risk assessment model from four aspects:the risk of disaster-causing factors,the sensitivity of hazard-bearing environment,the vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies,and risk prevention capacity,and comprehensively evaluated the spatial risk and overall risk of human-animal conflict in the study area.The results showed that the factors affecting the risk of human-animal conflict included animal density,number of incidents,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),population density,wild prey density,distance from rivers,distance from settlements,and livestock density.The risk of human-animal conflict in Sanjiangyuan National Park has an obvious spatial differentiation pattern.The risk was generally higher in the central area than in the eastern and southern areas,and the higher risk areas were mainly distributed in the townships of Zhidoi County and Qumarleb County in the Yangtze River Source Park,accounting for 97.07% of the area.It is concluded that the risk of human-animal conflict in the Sanjiangyuan National Park is generally high.The results of the study provide a scientific basis for determining the factors influencing the risk of human-animal conflict and precise prevention and control of wildlife accidents.