数字化如何缓解服务业结构升级滞后?——基于产业内渗透与产业关联视角

How can digitalization alleviate the lag in structural upgrades in the service industry?Perspectives of intra-industry penetration and industrial correlation

中国经济正经历服务业经济转型期,数字经济赋能服务业结构升级是经济高质量发展的必经途径。通过国际比较对比分析跨越“中等收入陷阱”经济体与中国服务业结构演进的特征事实,识别服务业结构升级滞后堵点,并从产业内渗透、产业关联视角探讨数字化对服务业结构变动的影响及其内在机理和逻辑,进而基于2011—2020年中国284个城市数据,全面评估数字化驱动服务业结构升级效应。研究发现:(1)数字化程度的提升能够促进服务业结构升级,且这一结构升级效应长期存在,并呈现出边际效应递增的特征。(2)城市数字化通过深化专业化分工、增进产业关联、创造新职位、缓解部门间人力资本错配促进生产性服务业升级,推进服务业结构升级。(3)在就业替代程度低、知识产权保护度高、服务业开放度高、绿色环保程度高的城市,数字化驱动服务业结构升级的效果更为明显。研究结论可为政府借助数字经济推动服务业高质量发展提供理论依据和政策建议。

The Chinese economy is undergoing an economic transformation in the service industry,and upgrading the service industry through the digital economy is necessary for high-quality economic development.By comparing and analyzing the characteristics and evolution of the service industry between economies that have crossed the"middle-income trap"and China via an international comparison,we identify areas that are lagging in terms of upgrades in the service industry.In addition,we explore the impact of digitalization on the changes in the service industry from the perspective of intra-industry penetration and industry correlation,as well as its internal mechanism and logic.Based on data from 284 cities in China from 2011 to 2020,we comprehensively evaluate how upgrades in digitalization drive the service industry.We find the following.(1)The improvement of digitalization can aid upgrades in the service industry,and this upgrading effect has existed for a long time and results in increasing marginal effects.(2)Urban digitization promotes upgrades in productive service industries.It promotes the structural upgrading of service industries by increasing the specialization of productive division of labor,enhancing industrial connections,increasing job creation,and alleviating the mismatch of human capital between departments.(3)In cities with a low amount of employment substitution,a high degree of intellectual property protection,high service industry openness,and a high degree of green environmental protection,the effect of digitalization driving upgrades in the service industry is more obvious.The conclusions provide a theoretical basis and policy recommendations for the government to use to promote high-quality service industry development in the digital economy.