中国人口转变的进程、趋势和问题

The Processes,Trends and Problems of Population Transformation in China

中国已经进入后人口转变时期,新常态背景下人口呈现出老龄化、少子化等问题。文章将中国第一次人口转变分为五个阶段,结合人口转变趋势分析人口基本情况和人口的年龄结构,从三个层面剖析中国后人口转变时期存在的问题。宏观层面上,通过比较各国老龄化程度,锚定中国人口转变的重点;中观层面上,通过观察中国人口迁移方向,挖掘人口转变与区域发展的关系;微观层面上,通过理解个体婚育行为选择,警惕潜在的人口发展危机。最后通过与英国、日本两国人口转变经验的比较,结合中国第一次人口转变过程以及第二次人口转变的特征,提出相关行动策略,以期促进我国人口均衡发展。

China has entered the post-demographic transition period,and the population presents problems such as aging and low birth rates under the new normal background.This paper divides China’s first demographic transition into five stages,analyzes the basic demographic situation and the age structure of the population in combination with the trend of demographic transition,and explores the problems existing in China’s post-demographic transition period from three levels.At the macro level,by comparing the aging degree of various countries,we can anchor the focus of China’s demographic transition;At the meso level,we can observe the direction of population migration in China and explore the relationship between population transition and regional development.At the micro level,by understanding individual choices in marriage and childbearing behavior,we should be alert to potential population development crises.Finally,through the comparison of the population transition experience in the United Kingdom and Japan,combined with the characteristics of China’s first demographic transition process and the second population transition,some action strategies are proposed to promote the balanced development of China’s population.