我国新型城镇化与乡村振兴协同发展的时空演化研究

The Spatio-temporal Evolution Analysis of China's New Urbanization and Rural Revitalization Coordinated Development

在构建新型城镇化与乡村振兴评价指标体系的基础上,依据2010-2019年我国30个省(市、自治区)面板数据,运用耦合协调度模型,分析全国新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调水平的时序变化和空间演进。研究发现:(1)我国新型城镇化水平空间演进呈现东部、中部、东北、西部递减趋势;(2)全国乡村振兴发展指数整体呈增长态势;(3)新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调水平呈“东部高,西北低”的分布特征。因此,东部地区在新型城镇化高质量发展的同时,要更关注乡村发展,以防城乡差距进一步拉大;中部地区新型城镇化与乡村振兴具有良好的协同发展基础,需促进资源驱动向创新驱动转型;西部地区要防止新型城镇化发展相对滞后的省份陷入因城镇化增速放缓而拖慢乡村振兴节奏的低水平耦合陷阱;东北地区老工业城市转型发展需要政府助力,在农业规模经营基础上实现农村三产融合,以产业振兴推动乡村振兴。

On the basis of constructing the evaluation index system of new urbanization and rural revitalization,and according to the panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and districts) in China from 2010 to 2019,the coupled coordination degree model is used to analyze the time series changes and spatial evolution of the coupled coordination level of new urbanization and rural revitalization in China.The findings are as follows:(1) The spatial evolution of new-type urbanization in China shows a decreasing trend in the eastern,central,northeast and western regions;(2) The development level of rural revitalization in China shows a trend of deepening in the east,west,south and north,and the growth rate of rural revitalization index in the central region is obvious;(3) The coupling coordination level of new urbanization and rural revitalization is“high in the east and low in the northwest”.Therefore,while developing high-quality new urbanization,the eastern region should pay more attention to rural development to prevent the gap between urban and rural areas from widening.New urbanization and rural revitalization in the central region have a good foundation for coordinated development,and it is necessary to promote the transformation from resource-driven to innovation-driven.In the western region,provinces(municipalities and districts) with relatively backward development of new urbanization should be prevented from falling into a low-level coupling trap that slows down the pace of rural revitalization due to the slowdown of urbanization growth.The transformation and development of old industrial cities in Northeast China needs the help of the government to realize the integration of rural three industries on the basis of agricultural scale management,and promote rural revitalization with industrial revitalization.