住房投机与政策调控对房价波动的影响——基于中国40个重点城市的数据

The Impact of Housing Speculation and Policy Regulation on House Price Fluctuations:Basedon Data from 40 Key Cities in China

构建住房需求结构、政策调控和价格的动态系统模型,依据2007-2021年40个重点城市季度数据,考量政策调控对于住房投机和房价波动实施效果。结果显示:住房投机推动了房价上涨,政府住房调控政策对房价波动影响差异显著;异质性分析显示,不同地区政策调控实施效果存在差异。鉴于此,应因城施策、分类指导,同时积极畅通房地产调控政策传导机制,提高传导效率,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。

This paper constructs a dynamic system model of housing demand structure,policy regulation,and prices,based on quarterly data from 40 key cities from 2007 to 2021,to consider the effectiveness of policy regulation on housing speculation and price fluctuations.The results show that housing speculation has significantly driven up housing prices,and there are significant differences in the impact of government housing regulation policies on housing price fluctuations.Heterogeneity analysis shows that there are differences in the implementation effects of policy regulation in different regions.In view of this,policies should be implemented and classified guidance should be provided according to the situation of a city,while actively unblocking the transmission mechanism of real estate regulation policies,improving transmission efficiency,and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.