技术性贸易壁垒对山东省农产品出口贸易的影响及对策研究--基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

Impact and Countermeasures of Technical Barriers to Trade on Agricultural Products Export in Shandong Province:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Trade Gravity Model

为了测度我国入世后,TBTs对山东农产品出口所产生的具体经济影响,本文选取2010—2020年中国对欧美、东盟、中美洲、日韩等主要贸易伙伴国农产品出口的面板数据,采用实证调查探究TBTs对山东农产品出口量占比、中国制造业出口额占比等的宏观经济影响。研究显示,进口国在前一时期提交的与农产品有关的TBTs产品,对当期山东农产品出口额占比、工业出口额占比等都具有负向效应,即TBTs产品所限制的生产领域越集中于农村生产地区,其负向效应越突出。最后,本文针对当前山东省内农产品交易如何合理避免TBTs的不良影响,分别从政府、行业和企业层面提出具体建议,以供参考。

To measure the specific economic impacts of technical barriers to trade(TBT)on agricultural products export in Shandong Province after China’s economic accession to the WTO,this article selects a panel of China’s agricultural exports to Europe,the United States,ASEAN,Central America,and South Korea and other major trading partner countries in the period from 2010 to 2020,and empirical investigations are used to explore the macroeconomic impacts of TBTs on Shandong’s agricultural exports as a percentage of its exports,the Chinese manufacturing exports as a percentage,and the macroeconomic impact of TBTs on Shandong's agricultural exports as a percentage,and China's manufacturing exports as a percentage.The study shows that the TBTs-related agricultural products submitted by importing countries in the previous period have negative effects on the current share of Shandong’s agricultural exports and that of industrial exports.For example,the more the production areas restricted by the TBT products are concentrated in the rural regions,the more prominent the negative effect is.At the end of the article,it puts forward specific suggestions for the current agricultural products trade in Shandong to reasonably avoid the adverse effects of TBTs from the government,industry,and enterprise levels respectively.