基于多维空间面板决策模型的区域韧性评估研究——以中原城市群核心区为例

RESEARCH ON REGIONAL RESILIENCE EVALUATION BASED ON MULTIDIMENSIONAL SPACE PANEL DECISION MODEL-TAKING THE CORE AREA OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS URBAN AGGLOMERATION AS AN EXAMPLE

区域作为自组织系统,内部各要素联系较强,区域韧性作为区域动态适应不同阶段风险和挑战的新研究范式,在研究中应根据构成要素的多元性及相互联系性对灾害全过程展开分析。目前韧性研究主要集中在单一城市或单一要素,缺乏与周边区域联系,韧性研究受外部因素限制,使分析结果与实际存在一定差异,因此提出基于“抵抗力、适应力、恢复力、学习力”的多维空间面板决策模型,从系统层面出发,构建区域韧性决策评估指标体系,并提出区域韧性总体测算方法,对区域韧性构成要素及对区域韧性影响分析,最后以中原城市群核心区为例,通过对中原城市群“提出前-目前”的多元指标数据统计,利用多维空间面板测算方法对区域韧性及韧性子系统对比分析,明确中原城市群核心发展区韧性发展及变化。

As a self-organizing system,it has strong connections to the internal elements of a region.As a new research paradigm to regional resilience for dynamically adapting to risks and challenges at different stages of a region,it should be analyzed throughout the disaster process based on the diversity and interconnectedness of its constituent elements.At present,research on resilience mainly focuses on a single city or element,lacking connections with surrounding areas.Resilience research is limited by external factors,resulting in certain differences between the analysis results and reality.Therefore,a multi-dimensional spatial panel decision-making model based on“resistance,adaptability,resilience,and learning ability”is proposed.Starting from the system level,a regional resilience decision-making evaluation index system is constructed,and an overall calculation method for regional resilience is proposed.The con-stituent elements of regional resilience and their impact on regional resilience are analyzed.Finally,taking the core area of the Central Plains urban agglomeration as an example,the multi indicator data is statistically analyzed of the Central Plains urban agglomeration before and after the proposal,Using multidimensional spatial panel calculation methods to compare and analyze regional resilience and resilience subsystems,and clarify the development and changes of resilience in the core area of the Central Plains urban agglomeration.