南水北调中线水源地周边农村地区碳排放及影响要素分析

ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSIONS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS IN RURAL AREAS AROUND THE WATER SOURCE AREA OF THE MIDDLE ROUTE OF THE SOUTH TO NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

农村地区因其规模较大且生活方式、产业发展模式较为粗放,碳排放居高不下,南水北调中线水源地周边区域因其特殊的水源需求,生态保护要求更为严格,应严格控制其碳排放,为明确其碳排放量及其影响要素,将农村地区碳排放来源分为4大类31小类。选取2005—2020年数据,借鉴KAYA恒等式对碳排放量进行测算,并利用对数平均权重Divisia指数和LMDI分解法对碳排放影响因素量化分析,研究发现南水北调中线水源地周边农村地区碳排放量总体呈增长趋势,增长速度较为稳定,地区农业发展水平、农村能源结构、农村消费结构碳排放逐年增加,是碳排放主要影响因素,碳排放强度整体呈现出先降后增趋势,对碳排放影响较小,农村能源效率、农业产业结构与碳排放成反比,对村庄碳排放有一定抑制作用。为提高区域生态环境保护能力,保护南水北调中线水源地水生态安全,提出降低碳排放策略,加强区域生态环境保护,确保丹江口水库水质安全,实现“一江清水永续北送”,为中国双碳目标实现提供支撑。

Due to its large scale and extensive lifestyle and industrial development,the carbon emissions in rural areas remain high.Due to its special water demand,the ecological protection requirements in the surrounding areas of the water source area of the middle route of the South to North Water Transfer Project are more strict,and their carbon emissions should be strictly controlled.In order to clarify their carbon emissions and their influencing factors,the sources of carbon emissions in rural areas are divided into 4 categories and 31 categories.Select the data from 2005 to 2020,use KAYA equation for reference to calculate carbon emissions,and use the logarithmic average weight Divisia index and LMDI decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the impact factors of carbon emissions.The study found that the overall carbon emissionsin rural areas around the water source area of the middle route of the South to North Water Transfer showed a growth trend,with a relatively stable growth rate,and the regional agricultural development level,rural energy structure,and rural consumption structure carbon emissions increased year by year,it is the main influencing factor of carbon emissions.The overall carbon emission intensity shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing,which has little impact on carbon emissions.Rural energy efficiency,agricultural industrial structure and carbon emissions are inversely proportional,which has a certain inhibition effect on village carbon emissions.In order to improve the regional ecological environment protection capacity and protect the water ecological security of the water source area in the middle route of the South to North Water Diversion Project,the strategy of reducing carbon emissions is proposed,the regional ecological environment protection is strengthened,the water quality security is ensured of Danjiangkou Reservoir,and the“water from one river can be transmitted to the north continuously”is realized,providing support for the realization of China’s dual carbon goals.