空气、水和土壤视域下环境污染对耕地抛荒的影响——来自中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)的证据

Effects of Environmental Pollution on Cropland Abandonment from the Perspectives of Air,Water and Soil——Evidence from the China Labor−force Dynamics Survey

耕地抛荒会威胁中国粮食安全,如何坚守18亿亩耕地红线,实现农业可持续发展,对于中国人民端稳手中的“饭碗”具有重大意义。在空气、水和土壤视域下,基于中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)2014-2018年三期面板数据和地级市环境污染数据,使用双向固定效应模型和工具变量等方法,实证检验了环境污染对耕地抛荒的影响及其微观影响机制,最后探讨了不同农户群体中环境污染对耕地抛荒的异质性影响。研究发现:(1)环境污染对耕地抛荒具有显著的正向影响,这一结果经一系列检验方法验证后依然稳健;(2)机制分析发现环境污染通过降低作物单产、增加劳动力健康风险,最终导致农户抛荒耕地;(3)异质性分析显示,环境污染显著增加了粮食作物种植户和老年农户抛荒耕地,中国农业生产主要群体更易受到环境污染的侵害。政府部门在分析环境污染对农业生产的影响时,应将耕地抛荒考虑在内,忽视环境污染对耕地抛荒的影响会严重低估环境污染造成的农业生产损失。

Cropland abandonment poses a significant threat to China’s food security.It holds paramount importance for the Chinese people to secure their food supply by maintaining the prescribed 1.8 billion mu of cropland and fostering sustainable agricultural development.From the perspectives of air,water,and soil,based on the panel data of China Labor Dynamics Survey(CLDS)from 2014 to 2018 and environmental pollution data of prefecture-level cities,we conducted an empirical investigation into the effect of environmental pollution on cropland abandonment and its micro-impact mechanism by using two-way fixed-effects model and instrumental variables,and finally explored the heterogeneous effects of environmental pollution on cropland abandonment among different groups of farmers.The study’s findings are as follows.Firstly,environmental pollution has a significant positive impact on cropland abandonment,and this outcome remains robust after undergoing a battery of tests.Secondly,mechanism analysis reveals that environmental pollution substantially reduces crop yields and significantly elevate health risks for the labor force,ultimately rendering farmers to abandon cropland.Thirdly,heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that environmental pollution significantly heightens cropland abandonment among food crop growers and elderly farmers,with major sectors of Chinese agricultural production being particularly susceptible to its effects.Government departments should take into account cropland abandonment when assessing the effect of environmental pollution on agricultural production.Neglecting the impact of environmental pollution on cropland abandonment will lead to a significant underestimation of the decline in agricultural production attributed to environmental pollution.