上海市碳交易市场波动性特征分析及价格预测

Analysis of the volatility characteristics and price prediction of the Shanghai carbon trading market

上海市是最先建立碳排放交易体系的一批试点,全国性碳交易市场也在上海启动,该地区的碳排放交易试点对我国建立统一的碳排放交易体系,达成“双碳”目标和应对全球气候变化有重要作用。文章通过上海市和湖北省碳交易市场波动性特征的对比分析,建立ARIMA模型对上海市碳排放权交易试点交易价格进行短期价格预测。研究表明,上海市碳交易市场存在活跃度较低、流动性不足、稳定性较弱、周期性较强的特征,应用ARIMA模型对上海试点的价格波动有一定解释能力,预测结果合理。针对以上问题,文章从企业积极性、地区间合作、产品多元化、市场规模、定价机制方面提出政策建议,为上海市碳交易试点乃至全国碳交易市场的发展提供参考。

Shanghai has taken the lead in establishing a carbon emission trading system among several pilot initiatives.The national carbon trading market has also been inaugurated in Shanghai,contributing significantly to China's establishment of a unified carbon emission trading system.This initiative aims to achieve the"double carbon"goal and actively respond to global climate change.This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the volatility characteristics between the carbon trading markets in Shanghai and Hubei Province.Additionally,it establishes an ARIMA model to predict the short-term prices of the carbon emission trading pilot in Shanghai.The findings reveal that the Shanghai carbon trading market exhibits characteristics such as low activity,insufficient liquidity,weak stability,and strong cyclicality.The ARIMA model demonstrates a reasonable ability to explain the price fluctuations in the Shanghai pilot,providing reasonable prediction results.Addressing these identified issues,the paper proposes policy suggestions related to enterprise enthusiasm,inter-regional cooperation,product diversification,market size,and pricing mechanisms.These recommendations aim to offer valuable insights for the development of the carbon trading pilot in Shanghai and,more broadly,the national carbon trading market.