新冠肺炎疫情背景下中国港口冷链运行效率

Operation efficiency of Chinese port cold chain under the context of COVID-19

为科学评价新冠肺炎疫情对中国港口冷链运行效率的影响,基于数据包络分析(DEA),同时考虑评价指标数据的差异性和指标间关系,将变异系数法和相关系数法与DEA模型结合,得到改进的DEA模型。以新冠肺炎疫情对中国港口冷链运行造成的影响为例,使用改进的DEA模型和空间自相关模型进行分析。结果表明:新冠肺炎疫情期间,中国沿海重要港口的冷链运行效率整体呈现先下降后上升的特点,除连云港港外,其余港口冷链运行效率均在新冠肺炎疫情的传导爆发期降至最低;疫情发生前后,莫兰指数散点图中的各个港口位于第二、四象限,尽管大连港、宁波-舟山港及广州港在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击增长期冷链业务量上升明显,但港口冷链业务竞争格局并未出现显著变化;中国政府迅速采取的防控措施对港口外贸冷链业务产生了一些影响,尤其是大连港和上海港受到的影响频次和程度较大,但从长远角度看,强有力的管控措施对于控制港区疫情传播风险、维护港口长期运行稳定及保障贸易活动的正常进行具有重要意义。

In order to scientifically evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 on the operation efficiency of Chinese port cold chain,based on data envelopment analysis(DEA),also considering the differences of evaluation indicator data and the relationships between indicators,an improved DEA model was obtained by combining the coefficient of variation method and correlation coefficient method with the DEA model.Taking the impact of the COVID-19 on the cold chain operation of Chinese ports as an example,the improved DEA model and spatial autocorrelation model were used to analysis.Results show that during the COVID-19,the operating efficiency of the cold chain of the important coastal ports in China was characterized by falling first and then rising,and the operating efficiency of the cold chain in other ports was reduced to a minimum during the transmission and outbreak period of COVID-19 except Lianyungang port.Before and after the outbreak of COVID-19,each port in the Moran index scatter chart was located in the second and fourth quadrants,although the cold chain business volume of Dalian port,Ningbo-Zhoushan port and Guangzhou port increased significantly during the impact growth period of the COVID-19,the competition pattern of port cold chain business did not change significantly.The rapid prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government have had some impact on the cold chain business of port foreign trade,especially the frequency and degree of impact on Dalian Port and Shanghai Port.However,from a long-term perspective,the strong control measures are important for controlling the epidemic spread risk in port areas,maintaining port operating stably for a long time,and ensuring the normal operation of trade activities.