基于系统进化树的重大工程复杂性动态演化研究

Dynamic Evolution on the Complexity of Megaprojects With the Phylogenetic Tree

通过文献析出重大工程影响因素形成重大工程复杂系统,并移植生物进化生态理论于重大工程研究领域中,结合“情境-策略”的适应性等特征,探索了复杂程度影响因素在重大工程发展过程中的变化程度和演化过程。研究发现,随着复杂性的增强,战略、价值、文化、跨组织、信息等相关影响因素得到了强烈进化,并凸显出高度复杂性。53个影响因素中有26个因素达到了5次进化,占比达到49.06%,表明系统总体进化水平高。该研究可以丰富重大工程复杂性的理论维度与影响因素,解释重大工程复杂性的来源,预测复杂性影响因素的未来走向,了解复杂性维度与影响因素之间的相关性。

This paper explores the influencing factors'degree of change and evolution of complexity in the development of megaprojects by analyzing the literature and transplanting the biological evolutionary ecological theory in the field of megaprojects.The characteristics of"context-strategy"adaptation is also considered in the analysis.The results indicate that with the increase of complexity,related influencing factors,such as strategy,value,culture,cross-organization and information,have been strongly evolved and highlighted at a high level of complexity.26 out of 53 influencing factors have reached 5 times of evolution,accounting for 49.06%of the total,indicating a high level of overall system evolution.The phylogenetic tree can predict the future direction of complexity influencing factors and understand the correlation between complexity dimensions and influencing factors.This research can enrich the theoretical dimensions and influencing factors of complexity,explain the sources of megaprojects'complexity,predict the future direction of the influencing factors,and help the correlation between complexity dimensions and influencing factors be unserstood.