基于复杂网络理论概算管理风险分析与控制研究

Research on the Risk Analysis and Control of Budget Estimate Management Based on Complex Network Theory

将复杂网络理论运用到概算管理风险分析,对建设项目全过程的4个阶段进行研究。通过分析文献和工程案例,识别出影响概算管理的风险因素并提取他们之间的相关关系,然后建立概算管理风险网络模型。利用节点度、网络直径及平均路径长度、聚类系数、中介中心性等复杂网络指标对概算管理风险进行分析,识别出影响概算管理的关键风险因素。结果表明,设计变更、工期延误、施工索赔、施工成本增加是影响整个概算管理风险网络的主要因素;设计变更与概算编制不准确受到风险网络模型中多个因素的影响,具有较高的风险率。构建概算管理风险度评估模型,获得了不同边的风险度指标。针对风险度较大的边提出了断链措施,当风险传播时及时进行断链,可有效控制风险进一步传播,减少超概算事件的发生。

Complex network theory is applied to the risk analysis of budget estimate management to study the four stages of the whole process of construction projects.Through the analysis of literature and engineering cases,the risk factors affecting budget estimate management are identified and the correlation between them is extracted,and then the risk network model of budget estimate management is established.Using complex network indicators such as node degree,network diameter and average path length,clustering coefficient and intermediary centrality,the risk of budget estimate management is analyzed,and the critical risk factors affecting budget estimate management are identified.The results show that the design change,construction delay,construction claim and construction cost increase are the main factors affecting the whole risk network of budget estimate management.Design changes and inaccurate budget estimates are affected by many factors in the risk network model,and the model has a high risk rate.The risk degree evaluation model of budget estimate management is established,and the risk degree indexes of different sides are obtained.Chain-breaking measures are proposed for the edge with the high risk.The chain breaking in time when risks spread can effectively control their further spread of risk and reduce the occurrence of overestimated events.