生产性支出与减税政策的就业效应对比分析

Comparison Analysis of Employment Effect Between Productive Expenditure and Tax Reduction Policy

基于我国30个省(区、市)的财政和就业数据,本文在对扩张性财政政策影响就业的机制分析的基础上,对比研究了生产性支出和减税政策就业效应的动态变化。实证结果表明,2012年以后,我国财政支出的就业效应逐渐减弱,而减税政策的就业效应日渐凸显。进一步检验表明,生产性财政支出的边际报酬递减解释了财政支出渐弱的就业效应;而企业经营成本增高、利润率降低,导致税收对企业能否存活的影响加深,解释了税收政策渐强的就业效应。本研究可能带来启示是,在基建存量制约和企业经营环境艰难的大背景下,财政政策的重点应继续从以生产性支出为代表的支出端转向以减税政策为代表的收入端。

Based on the financial and employment data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities on the Chinese mainland,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the impact of expansionary fiscal policy on employment,and compares the dynamic changes of the employment effect of productive ex-penditure and tax reduction policy.The empirical results show that the employment effect of China's fiscal expenditure has gradually weakened after 2012,while the employment effect of tax reduction policy has be-come increasingly prominent after 2012.Further tests show that the diminishing marginal return of produc-tive fiscal expenditure explains the weakening employment effect of fiscal expenditure;The high operating costs,lower profit margins and the deepening impact of tax on the survival of enterprises explain the in-creasingly strong employment effect of tax policy.The Enlightenment of this paper is that under the back-ground of infrastructure stock constraints and the difficult business environment,the focus of fiscal policy should shift from the expenditure side represented by productive expenditure to the income side represented by tax reduction policy.