中国城市群人口规模结构形成机制及影响因素研究——基于中国19个城市群的理论与实证分析

Research on the Formation Mechanism and Influencing Factors of Population Size Structure of Urban Agglomerations in China——Based on the Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of 19 Major Urban Agglomerations in China

城市群因其在区域经济发展中的重要角色而受到持续关注。本文用豪斯道夫分形维数测算了我国19个城市群的人口规模结构,并在理论机制分析的基础上,以实证模型研究了城市群人口规模结构的影响因素。结果发现:我国多数城市群人口过度集中于核心城市;影响城市群人口规模结构的直接成因是人口迁移流动,进一步地经济、行政、社会、自然四类因素的集聚力和分散力共同塑造了城市群人口规模结构特征,其中城市群收入差距、行政等级差异、交通发达度、高等教育差异、医疗资源差异、地形起伏度、总人口等会促使城市群人口规模结构集中化,而人均GDP、第三产业占比、环境污染强度等会促使城市群人口规模结构分散化。最后,本文提出了促进城市群人口规模结构合理化的政策建议。

Urban agglomeration has received continuous attention because of its important role in re-gional economic growth.This research utilizes Hausdorf fractal dimension to measure the population size structure of 19 urban agglomerations in China,and on the basis of theoretical mechanism analysis,studies the influencing factors of population size structure of urban agglomerations by empirical model.The results show that an excessive concentration of population whith the core cities of most urban agglomerations in Chi-na.The direct cause of the population size structure of the urban agglomeration is the population migration flow,while the agglomeration and dispersion of the four factors of economy,administration,society and nature further shape the population size structure of these areas.Among these factors,the income gap,difference of administrative level,traffic development degree,difference of higher education and medical resource,topographic relief degree and total population of urban agglomeration will promote the centraliza-tion of population size structure of urban agglomeration.Conversely,per capita CDP,proportion of tertia-ry industry and environmental pollution intensity will promote the decentralization of population size struc-ture of urban agglomeration.In the end,this article proposes policy recommendations to promote the ra-tionalization of the institutional structure of urban agglomeration population size.