中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI的绿色生产率增长效应——基于吸收能力和制度环境的实证检验

The Green Productivity Growth Effect of China on OFDI in Countries Along the Belt and Road——An Empirical Test Based on Absorptive Capacity and Institutional Environment

文章基于吸收能力和制度环境视角,实证检验了对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区对外直接投资(OFDI)的母国绿色生产率增长效应。结果表明:(1)社会资本存在“双重门槛”效应,产业集聚存在“单一门槛”效应,创新能力存在“三重门槛”效应。社会资本和产业集聚门槛下,OFDI对绿色生产率的影响呈正向边际效应递增的非线性特征,越过产业集聚门槛的主要以少数东部省市为主。创新能力门槛下,OFDI与绿色生产率之间呈“U型”关系,目前只有少数东部省市越过门槛值。(2)政府参与度存在“双重门槛”效应,该门槛下OFDI与绿色生产率之间呈“倒N型”关系,即政府适度参与有利于发挥OFDI逆向溢出效应,但过度参与和参与不足则会起反作用,这些省份主要集中在中西部地区。环境规制存在“单一门槛”效应,环境规制跨过一定的门槛值后OFDI的正向效应才变得显著,目前越过门槛值的只有少数东部省市。

Based on the perspective of absorptive capacity and institutional environment,this paper empirically tests the effect of OFDI on home country green productivity growth in the Belt and Road coun-tries.The results indicate that:(1)There is a double threshold effect of social capital,a single thresh-old effect of industrial agglomeration,and a triple threshold effect of innovation capability.Below the threshold of social capital and industrial agglomeration,the impact of OFDI on green productivity shows a non-linear characteristic of increasing positive marginal effects,with a few eastern provinces and cities mainly crossing the threshold of industrial agglomeration.Below the innovation capability threshold,there is a U-shaped relationship between OFDI and green productivity,and currently only a few eastern prov-inces and cities have crossed the threshold.(2)There is a double threshold effect in government partici-pation,and the relationship between OFDI and green productivity shows an inverted N-shaped relation-ship.Moderate government participation is conducive to the reverse spillover effect of OFDI,but excessive and insufficient participation can have the opposite effect.And these provinces are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions.Furthermore,There is a single threshold effect in environmental regula-tion,and the positive response of OFDI only becomes significant when environmental regulations cross a certain threshold.Currently,only a few eastern provinces and cities have crossed the threshold.