德国对中国直接投资演变的理论机制和路径选择

The Theoretical Mechanism and Path Choice of the Evolution of German Direct Investment in China

经贸合作是中德关系的基石,对中德双边关系发挥着重要的支撑作用。自1972年新中国同联邦德国建立外交关系以来,中德两国间经贸往来始终保持稳定增长态势。自2017年起,德国对中国直接投资呈现出投资总额波动和投资结构不稳定的问题,对中德经贸往来的平稳运行造成威胁。本文基于国际生产折衷理论,研究德国对中国直接投资总量与结构的演进机制,以及中国吸引德国直接投资的路径选择。研究发现,影响中德投资变化的主要因素包括德国制造业企业可持续发展优势突出引致投资总额提高、中德双边关系重塑引发政府区位优势衰减、人力成本变化和投资结构转变引发的不稳定性风险加大。为此,中国宜打出破除市场隐性壁垒、加强双边沟通合作、优化市场营商环境组合拳,促进德国对中国直接投资提质增效,稳固推进高水平对外开放,助力中国建设贸易强国。

Economic and trade cooperation is the cornerstone of Sino-German relations and plays an important supporting role in bilateral relations.Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the People's Republic of China and the Federal Republic of Germany in 1972,the economic and trade exchanges between them have always maintained a momentum of steady growth.Since 2017,German direct investment in China has entered a new phase,but it has been affected by issues related to fluctuating total investment and an unstable investment structure,which poses a threat to the smooth operation of Sino-German economic and trade exchanges.From the perspective of international production compromise theory,this paper studies the evolution mechanism of the total amount and structure of German FDI in China and China’s path choice of attracting German FDI.The study finds that the increase in total investment due to the outstanding sustainable development advantages of German manufacturing enterprises,the attenuation of the government’s location advantage because of the reshaping of Sino-German bilateral relations,and the increase of instability risk as a result of the change of labor cost and the transformation of investment structure are the main factors affecting investment change in the new stage.To this end,China should break down hidden market barriers,strengthen bilateral communication and cooperation,and improve the market and business environment so as to promote the quality and efficiency of German direct investment in China,steadily promote high-level opening-up,and help China build itself into a trade power.