航天型号小概率事件识别与控制方法

Research on Small Probability Problem Identification and Control Method of Aerospace Products

把质量问题简单归结为小概率事件会导致归零不彻底、举一反三不全面甚至故障重复发生,航天型号小概率事件的“事先预防”比“事后归零”更有意义。针对航天型号价值高、影响大、批量小的特点,在对大量历史质量问题深入分析的基础上,讨论了小概率事件的定义、特征和发生原因,提出了航天型号小概率事件识别与控制流程,综合运用了故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)、故障树分析(FTA)、事件链分析、仿真、试验和全过程控制方法。工程应用结果表明,采用该方法可以有效降低小概率事件发生的可能性,提高型号产品可靠性,为确保航天型号发射、飞行“万无一失”提供支持。

Simple attribution of quality problems to small probability events will lead to incomplete"quality problem closed-loop management",incomplete"drawing inferences about other cases from one instance"and even repeated failures.Preventing small probability events in aerospace products is more meaningful than"quality problem closed-loop management"afterwards.Aiming at the characteristics of high value,grate influence and small batch of aerospace products,this paper discusses the definition,characteristics and causes of small probability events on the basis of historical quality problems,and forms a small probability event identification and control process for aerospace products.This method comprehensively uses FMEA,FTA,event chain analysis,simulation,test and whole process control methods.Engineering application results show that this method can effectively reduce the possibility of small probability events,improve the reliability of aerospace products,and ensure that the rocket is launched and flight foolproof.