特大型顺层古滑坡复活变形特征分析及变形预测研究

Analysis on the Characteristics of Reactivation Deformation and Deformation Prediction of Super Large Layered Ancient Landslides

为有效掌握古滑坡复活特征及其变形规律,基于滑坡区现场调查成果,首先开展其复活变形特征分析,再利用WPT-ROA-RVM-CT模型进行滑坡变形预测研究。结果表明,在强降雨或持续降雨后,滑坡地表裂缝较为发育,具有张剪性质,且滑坡呈明显推移式特征,即滑坡中、后缘变形明显大于前缘,变形方向具有逆时针变化规律,充分说明古滑坡复活变形特征显著。同时,通过变形预测,验证WPT-ROA-RVM-CT模型具有较高的预测精度,并经外推预测,得到滑坡后续变形速率均为正值且较大,判断滑坡后续变形还会进一步增加,具有较大失稳风险,需尽快开展灾害防治研究。

To effectively grasp the reactivation characteristics and deformation laws of an ancient landslide,based on the on-site investigation results of the landslide area,we analyze the reactivation deformation characteristics,and then use the WPT-ROA-RVM-CT model for landslide deformation prediction.The results show that after heavy or continuous rainfall,the surface cracks of landslides are relatively developed,with tensile and shear properties.The landslide exhibits obvious displacement characteristics,that is,the deformation of the middle and rear edges of the landslide are significantly greater than that of the front edge.The deformation direction has a counterclockwise variation,fully indicating that the reactivation deformation characteristics of ancient landslides are significant.Meanwhile,through deformation prediction,the WPT-ROA-RVM-CT model is verified to have high prediction accuracy.Through extrapolation prediction,we find that the subsequent deformation rates of landslides are all positive and large,indicating that the subsequent deformation of landslides will further increase,with a significant risk of instability.Therefore,disaster prevention and control research need to be carried out as soon as possible.