我国货币政策利率传导渠道及其影响——基于直接、间接调控的实证分析

The Interest Rate Transmission Channel and Impact of China's Monetary Policy--An Empirical Analysis Based on Direct and Indirect Regulation

货币政策是中央银行宏观调控的重要手段,可通过利率渠道对实体经济产生影响,本文梳理人民银行货币政策的利率传导渠道,特别是2015年利率市场化初步完成以来的情况。首先,通过描述性分析研讨存款准备金率和公开市场操作的概况;其次,以VAR模型和Granger因果检验实证直接调控存贷款基准利率的影响,以Granger因果分析、脉冲响应和方差分析研究间接调控公开市场操作的作用;最后,实证结果发现直接和间接调控的传导渠道均较为畅通。因此,本文建议公开市场操作应更注重引导货币市场中长期利率,以保证政策传导效果的提升,同时完善货币政策在银行体系内部的传导渠道,适当放宽交易标准,区别对待大型银行和中小型银行,可考虑建立中小型银行集中委托第三方参与公开市场操作,方便货币政策更好、更快、更直接地传递到中小型银行。

Monetary policy is an important means of macroeconomic regulation by the central bank,which can have an impact on the real economy through interest rate channels.This article reviews the interest rate transmission channels of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy,especially since the initial completion of interest rate marketization in 2015.This article first analyzes the overview of deposit reserve ratio and open market operations through descriptive analysis.Secondly,the impact of direct regulation(benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans)is empirically studied using the VAR model,while the effect of indirect regulation(open market operations)is studied using Granger causality analysis,impulse response,and analysis of variance.Finally,the empirical results found that the transmission channels of direct and indirect regulation are unobstructed.Therefore,this article suggests that open market operations should pay more attention to guiding the medium-and long-term interest rates in the currency market to ensure the improvement of policy transmission effects.At the same time,it is necessary to improve the transmission channels of monetary policy within the banking system,appropriately relax transaction standards,and treat large and small banks differently.It is possible to consider establishing a centralized commission for small and medium-sized banks to entrust third parties to participate in open market operations,facilitating better and faster monetary policy More direct transmission to small and medium-sized banks.