经济增长目标、宏观杠杆周期与货币政策的非对称区制效应

The Asymmetric Region Effect of Monetary Policy in Different Economic Growth Target Stages from the Perspective of Macro Leverage Cycle

为了研究提升货币政策调控效果,选取我国1996年第一季度至2022年第二季度的数据,在货币政策模型系统构建的基础上采用LSTVAR模型研究了货币政策在不同宏观杠杆周期状态下的宏观经济效应,以及不同经济增长状态下的杠杆效应。结果表明,不同冲击方向的货币政策对经济增速和通胀的影响非对称性较弱,而在不同宏观杠杆周期状态下非对称性显著,其中高宏观杠杆时期的影响更强。在不同冲击方向、不同经济增长状态下,货币政策的宏观杠杆效应均有非对称性,其中低经济增速时期的宽松型货币政策效应更强。对比三部门,货币政策对企业杠杆周期的影响最强,对家庭杠杆周期的影响最持久,且不同经济增长状态下的非对称性也最显著。对比两类货币政策,还发现数量型相对价格型的效果更强。

In recent years,economic growth of China has continued to decline,and the macro leverage ratio has climbed again,becoming a huge resistance of the national economic recovery and financial stability.Against this background,how to accurately exert its monetary policy to achieve stable economic growth,reduce inflation and macro leverage risks,is the core goal of China s macro-control department.The existing literature basically studies the asymmetric macroeconomic effects of monetary policies from the perspectives of different impact directions and degrees,different economic development and macroeconomic policy stages.However,there are few studies on the asymmetric region effect of monetary policy in different economic growth target stages from the perspective of macro leverage cycle.What s more,the research of further deepening research from the perspective of the government leverage cycles,corporate leverage cycles,and households leverage cycles is even more scarce.Selecting data from the first quarter of our country from 1996 to the second quarter of 2022,and adopting the non-linear logic smooth transition vector autoregressive model on the basis of the construction of the monetary policy model system,this article studies the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy under different macro leverage cycles and the leverage effect in different economic growth states.The results show that the impact of monetary policy in different impact directions on economic growth and inflation is weak,and asymmetry is significant in the state of different macro leverage cycles,and the impact of high macro leverage is stronger.Under different impact directions and different economic growth states,the macro leverage effects of monetary policy are non-symmetrical,and the loose monetary policy effects in the low economic growth period are stronger.Compared with the three departments,the impact of monetary policy on the corporate leverage cycle is the strongest,the impact of the households leverage cycle is the most long-lasting,and the asymmetry in different economic growth state is also the most significant.Compared with the two types of monetary policies,it is also found that the relatively price-oriented effect is more effective.Compared with previous documents,this article has made marginal contributions in the following three aspects:First of all,the macro leveraged cycle and stock index gap factors are introduced into the monetary policy model system,and the comprehensive non-linear monetary policy model system is established,which includes the monetary policy,economic growth,inflation rate,stock index gap,and stock index gaps and macro leverage cycle.Secondly,this paper expands the non-linear LSTVAR model with leverage cycle as the threshold,identifies the period of leverage increase and deleveraging in China,and adds to the research on the asymmetric effects of price and quantitative monetary policies on economic growth and inflation under different leverage cycle regions.Thirdly,macro leverage is divided into enterprise leverage,government leverage and household leverage,and from the new perspective of structural leverage cycle,the asymmetric effects of price and quantitative monetary policies on enterprise,government and household leverage cycle under the two-region system of high and low economic growth rate are further discussed.The research of this paper is a useful supplement and perfection to the existing macro-control theory of monetary policy,which is not only helpful to identify the impact of the central bank s loose or tight price and quantitative monetary policies on macro leverage and structural leverage,but also identify the effectiveness of monetary policy and structural deleveraging that changes and adjusts in real time with the economic growth situation.It provides important decision-making basis for the future policy authorities to flexibly and accurately regulate monetary policy,so as to achieve macroeconomic policy objectives.