贸易政策不确定性对OFDI的影响研究——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

Research on the Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on OFDI--Take the Countries along the “the Belt and Road” as an Example

本文运用中国贸易政策不确定性指数和2003—2020年总计18年间的面板数据进行研究,发现贸易政策不确定性上升时中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资会增加。同时,贸易政策不确定性对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI的影响具有异质性,其中对中高收入国家的直接投资的影响最为显著。

This paper uses China's trade policy uncertainty index and panel data from 2003 to 2020 for a total of 18 years to study,and finds that Chinese enterprises'direct investment in countries along the“the Belt and Road”will increase when the trade policy uncertainty rises.At the same time,the impact of trade policy uncertainty on OFDI of countries along the“the Belt and Road”is heterogeneous,with the most significant impact on direct investment in high-income countries.