基于生态足迹和SD模型的山东省水资源可持续利用评价

Evaluation of Water Resource Sustainable Utilization in Shandong Province Based on Ecological Footprint and SD Model

水资源生态足迹与生态承载力对于区域水资源供需平衡问题具有关键的指示意义,在生态文明建设和可持续水资源利用中愈发重要,但现有研究缺少针对山东省水资源生态足迹的核算与评价。根据水资源生态足迹模型和山东省水资源供需系统动力学模型,对2001—2022年山东省水资源生态足迹和生态承载力进行核算与评价。结果表明:①2001—2022年山东省水资源生态足迹呈波动下降的趋势,人均水资源生态足迹平均值和人均水资源生态承载力平均值分别为0.379、0.106 hm^(2)/人,两者呈缓慢下降的趋势,由此导致人均水资源生态盈亏均为负值(均值为-0.2731 hm^(2)/人),即所有年份均存在水资源生态亏损,山东省水资源始终处于不可持续利用的状态,承受较大的水资源生态亏损压力;②2001—2022年山东省水资源生态压力指数均大于1且呈上升的趋势,平均值为3.581,水资源生态经济协调指数波动不大,平均值为1.232,水资源生态足迹强度呈显著下降的趋势,平均值为0.143 hm^(2)/万元,下降幅度高达90.9%,山东省在2001—2022年会承受较大水资源生态压力,水资源处于不安全利用的状态,水资源的生态经济协调性较好,但离1.414的最佳生态经济协调度还有不少距离,需进一步加强山东省水资源生态经济协调性,同时水资源利用效率得到了较大的提高;③山东省需要在节水设施的推广、节水栽培技术的采用、用水效率的提升等方面投入大量的力量,在生活用水方面,随着人口的不断增长,需要在民众节水意识的培养、对保护现有水资源的大力宣传及节水措施在全社会的普及等方面加大力度,让节约用水的意识和行为深入人心,才能更好更有效地促进区域水资源的可持续利用。

The ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of water resources are of key directive significance for the balance between supply and demand of regional water resources and are increasingly important in the construction of ecological civilization and sustainable water resource utilization.However,existing research lacks accounting and evaluation of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shandong Province.Based on the ecological footprint model of water resources and the system dynamic model of water supply and demand in Shandong Province,the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2022 are calculated and evaluated.The results show that:①From 2001 to 2022,the ecological footprint of water resources in Shandong Province showed a fluctuating downward trend,with the average per capita ecological footprint and the average per capita ecological carrying capacity of water resources being 0.379 hm^(2)/person and 0.106 hm^(2)/person,respectively,showing a slow downward trend.As a result,the per capita ecological profit and loss of water resources were both negative(with an average of-0.2731 hm^(2)/person),indicating that there were ecological losses of water resources in all years.Water resources in Shandong Province have always been in an unsustainable state of utilization,enduring significant ecological losses of water resources.②From 2001 to 2022,the ecological pressure index of water resources in Shandong Province was greater than 1 and showed an upward trend,with an average value of 3.581.The ecological and economic coordination index of water resources had little fluctuation,with an average value of 1.232.The ecological footprint intensity of water resources showed a significant downward trend,with an average value of 0.143 hm^(2)/104 RMB and a decrease of up to 90.9%.Shandong Province suffered from significant ecological pressure on water resources from 2001 to 2022,and water resources were in an unsafe state of utilization.The ecological and economic coordination of water resources was good,but there was still a gap from the optimal ecological and economic coordination of 1.414.It is necessary to further strengthen the ecological and economic coordination of water resources in Shandong Province,and the efficiency of water resource utilization has been greatly improved.③Shandong Province needs to invest a lot of effort in promoting water-saving facilities,adopting water-saving cultivation techniques,and improving water efficiency.In terms of domestic water use,as the population is constantly growing,it is necessary to increase efforts in cultivating public awareness of water-saving,vigorously promoting the protection of existing water resources,and popularizing water-saving measures in the whole society.Only by making the awareness and behavior of water-saving deeply rooted in people s hearts can we better and more effectively promote the sustainable use of regional water resources.